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May
15, 2002, 8:45 a.m. By Ariel Cohen |
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s
the White House slapped sanctions against Chinese companies selling the
technology for weapons of mass destruction to Iran last week, the smiles
that had greeted Hu Jintao, China's vice president and heir apparent,
only two weeks ago were quickly receding into the past.
Bush administration officials expressed concerns not just about the Chinese missile technology going to the mullahs in Tehran, but also about the recent diplomatic efforts by China to stir anti-American sentiment in the Middle East and Eurasia. While Mr. Hu was all smiles in Washington, his boss, Chinese President Jiang Zemin, was trying to build an anti-American coalition in Central Asia.
New statements from the Chinese leader's recent visit to Iran and Libya indicate that as the September 11 attacks recedes into the past, China may be exploring the creation of an anti-American alliance in Central Asia. The reactions of the Central Asian countries — including the five post-Soviet states, Iran, as well as Russia — will to a great degree define whether a Chinese-led counterbalance to the United States may be successful.
Beijing military sales to Tehran, especially for weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and related technologies, will also influence the Iranian challenge to the U.S. predominance in the area.
From April 18-22, President Jiang Zemin of China visited Iran as a part of a trip to Europe, the Middle East, and Africa that also included Nigeria, Libya, Tunisia, and Germany. Some called it Jiang's "Axis of Evil" tour. President Jiang headed a delegation of 180 government officials and businessmen. At the same time, China's Prime Minister Zhu Rongji visited Egypt with his 13 cabinet ministers. What was up?
President Jiang plainly stated that "China opposes U.S. presence in Central Asia and the Middle East." During the first visit to China by Iranian President Muhammad Khatami, in June 2000, he had declared that the contacts between two ancient Asian countries "appear certain to change China, Iran, and the international balance of power." This process may be underway.
This time, Khatami added that his country might reconsider its commitment to the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction: "…while respecting agreements on production and proliferation bans, we reserve ourselves the right to have defense means at our disposal" — a clear signal that Iran is hell-bound to acquire weapons of mass destruction.
China was one of the main suppliers of arms to Iran in the 1980s, during the war with Iraq, and would like to step up military cooperation. The U.S. repeatedly accused it of missile-technology proliferation to the Iranian military. Trade between the two countries is currently standing at $3.3 to 3.5 billion a year. The two sides did not disclose any weapons sales or military-technology-transfer agreements, which might have been signed during the visit; but the strategic implications of Iran arming itself with Chinese missiles are clear to the whole region — and to the world.
An Iran armed with nuclear missiles and other weapons of mass destruction will threaten the U.S. military power in the oil-rich Gulf as well as the U.S. homeland. At Bushehr, Iran is building two Russian-supplied nuclear reactors capable of producing uranium and plutonium, which can be enriched into weapons-grade fissile material.
The Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei reportedly told Jiang that "standing up to the wrong U.S. policies is necessary for the future of the globe… based on its political and military might, the U.S. seeks to impose its will regarding global issues on all countries and this is a big danger for the international community."
The Chinese ambassador to Iran, Sun Bi Gan, indicated that China shares some of Iran's views — including on the multi-polar world. This is the old anti-American rhetoric spawned by ex-Russian prime minister and spy chief Evgeny Primakov. According to the Primakov Doctrine, U.S. power was supposed to be counterbalanced by a quadrangle comprising Russia, China, India, and Iran. However, Russia sided with the U.S. in the war on terrorism, while Iran facilitated the escape of al Qaeda fighters from Afghanistan to Saudi Arabia; and China is interested in counterbalancing American influence in Eurasia and the Middle East.
The Jiang visit produced another surprise: The two countries did not see eye-to-eye on every issue. On the Arab-Israeli conflict, which Tehran was attempting to play up as common ground for joint action, the two countries engaged in markedly different rhetoric. Iran does not recognize the existence of Israel, and refers to it as a "Zionist entity." Teheran supplies arms to a Shiite organization, Hezbollah (Party of God), which is on the U.S. Department of State terrorism list. Iran also provides financial aid to Islamic Jihad and Hamas. Its former president Hashemi Rafsanjani publicly mused about the necessity of an Islamic nuclear bomb to destroy the Jewish state.
China, on the other hand, has diplomatic relations with Israel; and President Jiang visited Israel in 2000, spending four days negotiating and vacationing there. During his visit to Iran he said publicly that — while China opposes "occupation" and "domination" of the Palestinian lands, and supports "fair" Arab demands — the sides need to find a solution via peaceful negotiations based on U.N. resolutions. The only concession Jiang made to his hosts was to denounce U.S. support of Israel.
China may be taking advantage of the recent friction between the United States and the Islamic Arab countries, but the geopolitical repercussions of Chinese diplomacy are broader than that. The rhetoric of joint statements, interviews, and editorials during Jiang's visit to Iran is particularly hostile to the United States. As the rhetoric of post-9/11 solidarity recedes, China and Iran may be planning an alliance of convenience to challenge America. However, the Beijing strategists may be up for a rude awakening: As some analysts, including NRO's Michael Ledeen, have suggested, the stability of the theocracy in Tehran may be overrated — and China will be left holding the proverbial bag.
— Mr. Cohen is a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation and an NRO contributor.