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September
6, 2002, 9:00 a.m. By Edward B. Miller |
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or
some time now, Jewish voters have been disproving the old adage that Jews
live like Episcopalians but vote like Puerto Ricans. Republican incumbents
such as New York's George Pataki and Ohio's George Voinovich, and recent
Republican officeholders like New York's Rudy Giuliani and Al D'Amato
and Massachusetts's Bill Weld each won more than 40 percent of the Jewish
vote in one of their campaigns. However, if the recent division between
blacks and Jews in the Democratic party continues to grow, these politicians
will no longer be the exception and Jewish support for Republicans will
be the rule.
This latest rift within the Democratic party began in late spring when rank-and-file Jews across the country targeted for defeat several black members of Congress, because of their positions on Israel.
The first to lose his seat was Earl Hilliard. During his nearly 30 years in elective office the Alabaman repeatedly took positions which were offensive to Jews. These included voting against non-binding resolutions supporting Israel in her fight against terrorism, including one in May less than one month before his primary. He also opposed U.S. sanctions against rogue regimes, and introduced legislation only weeks after last September 11 to remove the sanctions in place against Iran, Iraq, and Libya, among others.
The division widened after Cynthia McKinney, a ten-year veteran of Congress was defeated The Georgian, too, had voted against pro-Israel resolutions, joining Hilliard and 16 other Democrats (compared with only five Republicans) in opposing the May resolution. She had also criticized New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani for rejecting a $10 million donation from Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal to aid the families of the victims of September 11 because of comments the prince made tying the attacks against the U.S. to its Middle East policy and support for Israel. In addition, last year, one of her congressional staffers, referring to Jewish members of Congress, wrote in a Capitol Hill newspaper, "[M]ost disturbing to me is that many of these pro-Israeli lawmakers sit on the House International Relations Committee despite the obvious conflict of interest that their emotional attachments to Israel cause. The Israeli occupation of all territories must end, including Congress."
The fact that two veteran Democratic officeholders were defeated by two political novices would have been cause enough for concern for the Democratic-party leadership. In fact, aside from Gary Condit and redistricting-related primaries in which incumbents faced one another, Hilliard and McKinney were the only incumbents in either party this year to lose a primary election.
That both were black and their defeats resulted from overwhelming Jewish opposition is cause for panic among Democrats. Without the combination of Jewish money (Jews raise at least one-third of all Democratic funds) and black-voter turnout (nearly twenty percent of Democratic voters are black) Minority Leader Richard Gephardt has about the same chance of becoming Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives this November as Newt Gingrich. However, as a result of Hilliard's and McKinney's defeat this is exactly what is now unfolding.
Congressional Black Caucus Chairwoman Eddie Bernice Johnson (D., Tex.) said that among black voters there was a growing perception that "Jewish people are attempting to pick our leaders. There is some concern about that." And, when asked to explain his daughter's defeat, state representative Billy McKinney, said, "J-E-W-S."
Indeed, Hilliard's and McKinney's challengers, both blacks, received strong support from Jewish donors, including eight out-of-state Cohens who contributed to McKinney's opponent. As Jews become more attuned to the voting records of elected officials outside of their own districts the differences between Jews and blacks within the Democratic party will only expand. For years now, Jews have looked the other way as the Democratic party has embraced the likes of Earl Hilliard and Cynthia McKinney and acquiesced to their anti-Israel positions. But, for several reasons, Jews are no longer willing to do so.
For starters, the number of Jews being killed in Israel during the past two years has led many American Jews to conclude that the stakes are just too high to sit by and let the Earl Hilliards and Cynthia McKinneys in Congress continue to shape U.S. foreign policy. Other Jewish Americans have become emboldened by President Bush's decisive leadership in the war against terrorism and in support of Israel's right to self-defense, and consider themselves political free agents, free to support and oppose candidates based on their records. Many see survey results, such as those released by Time magazine earlier this summer in which 53 percent of Republicans term themselves supporters of Israel compared with only 40 percent of Democrats, and choose to identify with Republican candidates. On top of that are the results from the congressional votes on Israel, like the one last May, in which the vast majority of those opposing pro-Israel measures are Democrats. Finally, demographics are also playing their part in reducing Jewish ties to the Democratic party. The most pro-Democratic Jewish voters are those who came of age during Franklin Roosevelt's presidency and each election cycle will continue to see fewer of them at the polls.
Such a shift will make it much harder for the Democratic leadership to keep its fragile coalition intact. Consider Hilliard's election. Responding to criticism from the Congressional Black Caucus that the Democratic leadership had not done enough to protect black incumbents (from more moderate black challengers), the Democratic House leadership contributed nearly $50,000 to Hilliard's campaign after he had been forced into a runoff. Yet, it was at precisely this time that Jewish donors were pulling out all of the stops in their fundraising efforts, correctly sensing that momentum was on their side.
The Democratic congressional leadership has taken for granted Jewish support for so long that it ignored the potential political fall-out from making such a sizable contribution in the face of overwhelming Jewish opposition to Hilliard. Moreover, Jewish success in defeating McKinney and Hilliard has given Jews a newfound sense of political empowerment, which they may use against additional Congressional Black Caucus members with poor records on Israel. This will only intensify the conflict within the Democratic party between Jews and blacks, many of whom already feel a sense of disenfranchisement in the wake of these losses.
This is not good news for Democrats, who need only look back to 1994 to see the effects of low black-voter turnout combined with large-scale Jewish support for Republican candidates. That year, the GOP captured Congress and a majority of the nation's governor's mansions. Without the support of Jews and blacks, Democrats look likely to live with those results for some time to come.
— Edward B. Miller is an attorney practicing in New York and formerly a Republican pollster.