We polled a few of our favorite prognosticators on the results of
tomorrow's New Hampshire primary:
Michael Barone, U.S. News & World Report: "Bush beats McCain narrowly, and
Bradley winds up a little bit behind Gore. McCain will fight again in
South Carolina, but it will be a tough state for him. And it seems clear
Bradley has the money and the motive to go to March 7 and beyond. He
thinks Gore is playing dirty pool."
Bernadette Malone Connolly, editorial-page editor, Union Leader
(Manchester, N.H.): "McCain wins, with Bush and Forbes in a dead heat for
second, Keyes in high single digits, and Bauer a blip. The result is an
embarrassment for Bush and puts a pin in the inevitability balloon. On the
Democratic side, Dollar Bill is a day late and a dollar short — he waited
too long to call Gore a liar. And if Bradley can't win in New Hampshire,
he can't win anywhere."
Ed Kilgore, policy director, Democratic Leadership Council: "McCain beats
Bush by an eyelash — and we'll find out how much of Bush's support is based
on his electability. Forbes may go as high as the low 20s. Gore wins by 10
points, which means Bradley should withdraw, even though he'll probably
hang on until Super Tuesday hoping for a miracle. Yet Gore is all but
crowned after New Hampshire."
Marshall Wittmann, Heritage Foundation: "Gore beats Bradley, 52 percent to
48 percent. This race went thermonuclear over the weekend, and after
Tuesday these two candidates will face a long nuclear winter. A lot of
Democrats are worried about that — witness the letter from Tom Daschle
and Dick Gephardt criticizing Bradley. They're concerned about the party
getting off message now. Unfortunately for them, the only thing that will
prevent Bradley from going on to March 7 is a double-digit defeat in New
Hampshire."
Vice President Gore's bona fides as an environmentalist were challenged on
Saturday at a town hall meeting in Lebanon, New Hampshire. During his
response, Gore seemed for a moment to be retreating from one of his most
controversial statements — but only for a moment. "I wrote in this book
Earth in the Balance that we should set as a strategic goal the phasing
out of the internal-combustion engine over a 25-year period," he said. "I
accept now that was a mistake. Twenty-five years is far too long for a
goal like that. I think we can do it quicker. And I think that the Big
Three automakers are going to do it quicker than that."
Al Gore waxed historical at the same town meeting: "In the Federalist
Papers, before our Constitution was drafted, James Madison wrote about the
dangers of 'faction.' That was the word our founders used to describe
excessive partisanship." The Federalist Papers were, of course, written
after the Constitution was drafted — Madison et al were advertising its
virtues in order to get it ratified. Chalk it up to a long day on the
trail.
