POLITICS: THE QUITTER
Sen. Bob Smith ended his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, and word is that he will seek the White House at the helm of Howard Phillips's U.S. Taxpayers Party (soon to be renamed the American Constitution Party). If Smith's withdrawal did not cause a scramble for his supporters, that was because there were so few of them. Smith polled less than 2 percent in New Hampshire, which he has served in Congress for 15 years. The reasons are not far to seek. Though he can be feisty and good-humored, Smith is not riveting. Portraying himself as a spokesman for conservative principle, he is in fact attracted to marginal positions. For example, his curtain-call speech in the Senate attacked NAFTA and GATT, territory that had already been staked out by Pat Buchanan.

Yet Smith's defection is important as a symptom of unease among some conservatives. Recent victories under the Republican banner have amounted to little; maybe future ones will amount to no more. The Gingrich Revolution lasted less than a year, from the 1994 election to the 1995 budget deadlock; and who knows what a second Bush presidency would amount to?

Smith blamed the GOP's torpor on an "entrenched political industry" of pollsters and campaign consultants, who pull the party in the direction of safe and uncontroversial positions. This is an argument beloved of populists, and it has a certain plausibility. Professionals are primarily interested in winning, and since most people are timid, most pros will counsel caution. But some consultants (like Lee Atwater) know that divisive issues win elections; and whatever the professionals recommend, the decision is up to their employers. Every candidate or party ultimately gets the kind of campaign it deserves.

The way to pull politicians in a desirable direction is the same way to pull voters: by offering more compelling arguments in the political arena. Third parties-Free Soil, Prohibition, Socialist-have historically played a role in floating issues. But implementing them as policies requires a winning coalition commanded by a major party. In the 1970s, the Republican party was committed to détente and a realpolitik strategy of managing a declining American position. In his 1976 and '80 campaigns, one losing, one winning, Ronald Reagan led the GOP, the electorate, and ultimately the Free World, to victory. He did not do it by running on a third party, despite many and strong suggestions that he do so.

Buoyed by money and polls, George W. Bush looks unstoppable. If he still has a lot to learn, the main forum he will learn it in is the Republican nomination contest, which Sen. Smith wrongly urges conservatives to join him in abandoning.