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November
6, 2002 8:35 a.m. |
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very easy win for Governor George Pataki. It was a victory that was never
really in doubt.
In fact, a walk down Harlem's historic 125th Street on Monday morning would tell even the most casual observer almost anything they needed to know about the direction of the gubernatorial race in a state Al Gore won two years ago with 60 percent. (New York is also, by the way, a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by two million voters.)
This should be the heart of "Carl McCall Country." McCall, the state's comptroller and the first African-American nominated for governor in the Empire State, should be seen as a godlike figure in one of America's classic black neighborhoods. Yet, there is barely a "McCall for Governor" sign anywhere to be seen. Yes, Harlem is becoming gentrified and white yuppies are moving in — but it's not that far gone.
McCall shows up at the Apollo Theatre to join a live broadcast of the Tom Joyner radio show. It's emblematic of the problems of the McCall campaign. He is alone, except for one press aide. The promised 15 minutes on the Joyner show turn out to be even less — he has to share the time with Democratic Senate candidate from Texas Ron Kirk, who calls in. In the last desperate hours of a losing campaign, McCall wasted time doing national radio when he should be trying to rally his own local troops.
But that's the way it generally went for Carl McCall. No surprise that about 36 hours later, shortly after the polls closed in New York, Republican George Pataki had won a third term. Pataki got 50 percent of the vote, McCall 33 percent and billionaire Tom Golisano took 14 percent. Pataki was one of the few Republicans who didn't owe his victory to George W. Bush.
At least not directly. Having been governor when 9/11 occurred, Pataki didn't need the Bush afterglow that helped sweep many Republicans into office yesterday. Like Rudy Giuliani, Pataki came to be seen as someone who provided a steadying hand during a very tough time.
Of course, true-blue conservatives (as opposed to the upper case Conservative party) living in the state know that Pataki also assured his election by jumping to the left on a host of issues over the last few years. He cut a deal with the powerful healthcare-workers union that amounted to a nice cross-the-board increase in their wages. This billion-dollar deal was paid for by a substantial hike in cigarette taxes. That's notable because Pataki came eight years ago as a tax-cutter. Because of this deal, the normally Democrat-assisting union endorsed Pataki and sat on the sidelines during this election.
Before 9/11, Pataki expanded various child and family health insurance programs. Even post-9/11, he cut deals with the Republican state senate majority leader and Democratic assembly speaker to increase state spending at a time when the state should have been cutting. As a result of the spending and the downturn in the economy, the state faces a budget deficit next year of close to $7 billion.
In a perfect pander to Hispanic voters, Pataki also endorsed the United States ending live-range test bombing on the Puerto Rican island of Vieques. One of the governor's more successful political gambits actually has been his courting of Hispanics. Amigos de Pataki fundraisers and events were one of the highlights of the campaign season. Like the president, Pataki has taken Spanish lessons and is insistent on making the GOP a hospitable place for Latino voters (the head of the above-mentioned healthcare-workers union, Local 1199, Dennis Rivera is Hispanic.
Pataki basically triangulated his Democratic opponent out of the way. A combination of a good message, legitimate accomplishments (even if, from a conservative standpoint, most of them were from his first term) and an opponent running an under-financed, unimaginative and dismal campaign proved to be an overwhelming advantage for the incumbent (one observer said that McCall's effort may have been worse than that of Michael Dukakis).
The question those on the right have to ask is: What will Pataki do with this victory? He clearly has power, but will he use it? The truth is Pataki does not have what could be considered a great vision for his third term. Will he manage to parlay it into pushing for some real budgetary cuts? How about tax cuts? Or will he be rolled (like his predecessor, Mario Cuomo) into agreeing to a tax increase during — at least in New York — a recession?
One hopes and prays that is not the case, but George Pataki has not demonstrated that his principles are grafted fully into the fiber of his being.
So, today, Republicans can celebrate another "hold" in the relatively hostile (to the GOP) Northeast part of the country. But, it is up to Pataki over the next few months to determine whether it will be a true triumph or a Phyrric victory.
Oh, yeah, one more thing. The big winners in the Democratic party because of this debacle are Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who destroyed his nominal Republican opponent, and Hillary Rodham Clinton. Because of ongoing corporate scandals and his aggressive response to them, Spitzer's star is rising both in state and across the country (he was on the cover of Fortune in September). Heck, he had a better night Tuesday than SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt who is supposed to be the point man on corporate corruption.
Meanwhile, Hillary is clearly one of the few stars that the Democrats have right now and certainly one of the few that can be counted on to raise hard dollars. That's right, no more soft money to fund Democrat campaigns anymore.
Oh, to be a fly on the wall in various Democratic-party meetings right now.
— Mr. George is an editorial writer for the New York Post.