NRsat down with GOP pollster Frank Luntz to talk about South Carolina — and beyond.
NR: We're seeing a lot of McCain/Perot parallels in the press now — does that ring true to you?
FL: Yes. What I've said in the past is that John McCain is a more stable Ross Perot and a more intelligent Jesse Ventura. He's attracting the same kind of voter that turned to Perot in '92 and Ventura in '98. It's the same hostility towards Washington and the political structure and political elites. Another thing is that Perot took the country by storm as McCain seems to be doing, but Perot had a lot longer period to do it. Perot first hit in early February with the Larry King Live show, and he peaked in mid — June. Basically, McCain has to do what Perot did, and he has to do it in half the time.
NR:. We're seeing a lot of criticism of the campaign that Bush is running in South Carolina — one, that it's too negative, and two, that it's moved him too far to the right. What do you think?
FL: I think that the campaign will help him in South Carolina. The focus group I did for MSNBC was desperately looking for some passion in Governor Bush. One reason why McCain surged among these voters was because they heard nothing but generalities and a lack of commitment from the Bush campaign. What I saw on CNN on Wednesday during the debate was someone who actually wanted to win the nomination, someone who wanted to win the election. This is important for Bush.
NR: If there were two or three things that you could change about what Bush is saying and what he does on the stump right now, what would they be?
FL: He's changed them already. The fact that he went to a 30 minute ad, showing him responding to questions. The fact that he showed a little righteous indignation during the CNN debate. The fact that his appearances are much more interactive and less staged than in the past. The fact that he continues to speak up for Republican principles like lower taxation. All of that bodes well for him over the next few weeks.
NR: Conservatives, obviously, desperately want to beat Gore. They're looking at these guys with an eye to see who would be the best candidate in the fall. From what you've seen so far, who do you think would match up best against Gore?
FL: It depends. If it's the passionate George Bush of South Carolina, I think he'd make the better candidate. But if it's the George Bush of New Hampshire, then I'd say John McCain would make the better candidate.
NR: Why does the passionate Bush trump McCain as a general election candidate?
FL: Because the passionate Bush unites the Republican party.
NR: So, McCain has a risk of a fractured party or apathetic base?
FL: If McCain wins either South Carolina or Michigan, he has earned the right to be the vice — presidential nominee. And I like the idea of the two of them together, because McCain clearly does better among independents and conservative Democrats than Bush — clea
NRy, clearly better — and McCain can win votes that Bush cannot touch. But I don't want to see the conservative movement fractured, and I wouldn't want to have a fight on the convention floor over campaign — finance reform. It's not helpful.
NR: How important is that issue to McCain's appeal?
FL: It's a symbol of the appeal, but it's not the critical component. It's an example of where McCain is a true reformer, but it's not why people are voting for him. They're voting for him because he is different, because he takes on the status quo, because he looks people straight in the eye, because of his war record. And by the way, the people voting for McCain have no illusions that John McCain is this great hero. It's not the hero — worshipping that you saw in '92 with Ross Perot, which is why McCain support is harder, more intense. Because with McCain they recognize that he is only human, but they feel he is the most likely person to bring about the changes they want and they don't hear that kind of reform — minded intensity in Bush's rhetoric.
NR: If McCain wins South Carolina, is he the nominee?
FL: McCain would have to win both South Carolina and Michigan to have about a 40% shot of winning the nomination.
NR: Really? Just because of the late contests and the way they're bunched up?
FL: First off, even if Bush has spent a ton of money, he still has more than McCain. He still is better known than McCain. A lot of the states that are coming up on the 7th and the 14th of March are closed primaries. McCain is clear;y losing the Republican vote to Bush. The only states that McCain can win are the states that allow independents and Democrats to vote. California is a great example. I'm convinced, and I would stake my reputation, on Bush winning — and it's winner take all. Bush will win all the delegates even if McCain wins the popular vote, because the only votes that count towards delegates are Republican votes. New York is a closed primary. McCain could end up with 46% of the vote and end up with less than a quarter of the delegates. In the actual delegate count, the rules are so stacked against John McCain that even with wins in South Carolina and Michigan Bush is still clearly the frontrunner. And, by the way, if McCain loses South Carolina, he may still win Michigan, but it will be over. The only way for McCain to win is to win both of these states.