The China Test
An interview with Bill Gertz.

By Kathryn Jean Lopez, NR associate editor
April 5, 2001 11:20 a.m.

ill Gertz is defense and national-security reporter for the

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Washington Times. He is the author, most recently, of The China Threat: How the People's Republic Targets America.

Kathryn Jean Lopez: What could China possibly be thinking?

Bill Gertz: China appears to be testing the new Bush administration. They know a debate is underway between pro-China and pro-Taiwan elements over plans to sell advanced weapons needed by Taiwan to counter the Chinese-missile buildup opposite Taiwan. The Taiwanese this year also have asked for P-3 surveillance aircraft, similar to the one being held in China.

Lopez: Could there be any circumstance under which the U.S. considers apologizing at this point?

Gertz: They already have. Issuing statements of regret for deliberate Chinese aggressive military activities is not, in my view, the way to handle this. China's government already views the United States with disdain and as the main enemy or hegemon to be defeated. China's Communists misinterpret the current policies as weakness. There has been no public demand for the immediate release of the crew and aircraft, only less categorical statements.

Lopez: Do you foresee the possibility of military action?

Gertz: Military action is not likely. But I am sure that of all the options being looked at by the Bush administration there would be some kind of military rescue operation. The U.S. military keeps a special team of commandos on Okinawa for just such purposes.

Lopez: Are we equipped for a conflict with China?

Gertz: Yes. The Pacific Command has quietly been developing some limited war-fighting plans in the event of an unprovoked attack on Taiwan. The recent movement of air-launched cruise missiles to Guam and the announcement that the Navy would station three attack submarines in Guam are part of that new effort. China, for its part, is developing war-fighting capabilities designed to cripple U.S. command-and-control and intelligence, including information warfare capabilities and anti-satellite weapons.

Lopez: Including this plane and its contents, do we have any idea of the extent to which China has knows our military secrets?

Gertz: The Chinese have extremely good intelligence on our military secrets as a result of their intelligence-gathering efforts against the United States. Learning the secret intelligence-gathering methods on the EP-3 would help them to deny us future intelligence collection and also to feed false strategic deception into a U.S. intelligence community that already is predisposed to viewing China as benign.

Lopez: To what extent is this incident an outgrowth of recent U.S. policy toward China?

Gertz: China's military views the centerpiece of the Pentagon's pro-China engagement strategy of military-to-military relations with scorn. They use it as a way to learn war-fighting methods and gather intelligence. The program is currently under review.