tto Reich, former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela, is director of the Center for a Free Cuba in Washington, D.C.

National Review: What do you make of everything that’s going on now in the case of Elián Gonzalez — particularly now that Janet Reno’s is headed down to Miami?

Otto Reich: I think it’s a little late, to say the least. She has managed to find time to meet with all sorts of emissaries of the Cuban government, but she hasn’t met with the American citizens involved until now. I think it’s been terribly mishandled by the administration — and that it’s an understatement. I think it also shows how cleverly Castro can still manipulate the U.S. government and the media.

NR: How close is the U.S. government working with Cuba?

Reich: They completely caved the moment that Castro went berserk about seven days after the boy was rescued — when Castro realized that this could be something that he could use to obtain a number of objectives: 1) was to whip up nationalistic sentiment in Cuba, which doesn’t work that well anymore; and 2) to serve as a distraction from the terrible problems that he was having internally — political problems. There was another wave of repression and the heads of the Latin American countries that had attended the summit in November had all publicly called for respect for human rights in Cuba — they met with the dissident movement, etc. The fact that the economy continues to stagnate. All these things he was having problems with. And add to that the fact that he likes to threaten the U.S. government whenever possible and he likes to see the president of the United States humiliated whenever possible.

NR: How important is this case in terms of the two countries’ relations?

Reich: Important only in that it is going to embolden Castro. It simply confirms to him that threats to unleash another rafter crisis will work with certain kinds of U.S. administrations. Interestingly enough, he’s only done this with democratic administrations: Johnson, Carter, and now Clinton. He’s never tried it with any Republican administration because 1) he’s genuinely afraid that they will retaliate because 2) they have told him they would retaliate. But, the major rafter crises always took place during Democratic administrations and I think he has, whether this is a coincidence or by design, seen that he can threaten these governments and that they will do basically what he wants them to do.

NR: It seems certain that Elián is on his way back to Cuba. Do you agree that’s the case? Do you think there is any hope that this can be worked out in the American courts?

Reich: It certainly appears that way. I don’t know. I’m not a lawyer. But I have talked to lawyers who all agree that once the decision was made by the attorney general that the courts really have very little leeway in challenging. The Constitution is pretty clear — or the law is pretty clear in giving the attorney general jurisdiction over immigration law. That’s why the administration has tried so hard to keep this from going to state court, where custody is determined. This was a political decision from the very beginning. Once the political decision was made that keeping Elián Gonzalez here was a threat, or created a danger for the administration politically of another rafter crisis, then the law was completely on the administration’s side. By that I mean, if the attorney general had ruled in the other direction, then the appeals would have also supported the attorney general.

A lot of people have misunderstood. They say, “Well, this has gone to the courts. And the courts have ruled that the child has to go back.” No, no. The courts have simply ruled that the attorney general acted within her constitutional rights when she made that decision. But she could have made the exact opposite decision and she still would have been within her constitutional rights. So that’s what the courts are deciding. This is not a legal matter. This is a political matter. This was a political decision from the very first day. I should say, from the very first day that Castro decided to make it a political issue. If you look at the chronology of events, you will notice that the first three or four days after Thanksgiving when Elián was rescued, absolutely nothing happened and the INS, in fact, followed the normal procedure — which was to turn the boy over to his nearest relatives. If they have close relatives in the United States, Cuban refuges under the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966 they are allowed to stay and are taken to their nearest relatives. So, INS acted properly. It was only a few days later when Castro realized that this could be a very valuable political distraction for him and another way to yet humiliate another U.S. administration that this became political and that’s when the attorney general said the boy had to go back.

NR: So, Castro is running U.S. foreign policy?

Reich: Oh, yeah. Sure. In this case as he had in other cases. I’m not saying he run’s everything, but in this case, sure.

NR: Knowing what you know about Cuba today, what’s the future for Elián Gonzalez once he gets back there?

Reich: Oh, I think his future is very dire because he’s going to be made an example of the Communist man. What will happen is absolutely nothing at first. He will go back to his house in Cárdenas with his father and his father’s new wife. The government will make sure that the media is compliant. The international media who are in Cuba are strictly under the sufferance of the Cuban government because if they stray in their reporting they are removed, they are sent out of Cuba. You never seen any negative reporting from the American media in Cuba. You only see very favorable reporting because they want to continue to be there. They will take pictures of Elián playing in his house and at his school and sitting at his desk and all of this. This will last for a few days, maybe weeks. Then people will forget about Elián, they’ll go on to something else.

And the government will leave him alone for maybe a year and then slowly, as Castro has said, he will be reintegrated into the society. This is simply code language for brain-washed. They’re going to make sure he is. They’ve got plenty of time since he’s only six years old. Psychologists say they don’t even remember things like what he’s just been through unless they’re like nine years old. Sure, he’ll remember a few things, but they’ll be fleeting memories. He’ll be indoctrinated. According to the Cuban constitution, it is the purpose of education — Articles 38 and 39 — to inculcate Marxism and Leninism as the ideals of every student. That’s part of the constitution. In this particular case, this boy will be more Communist than Fidel Castro by the time they are finished with him because they’ll make sure that he is because he has been used as an example of the opposition to Castro by the hated exiles in Miami and by the anti-Communists. So, therefore, he has to be made an example of the fact that when people have a “choice,” they become Communists. After all, Castro himself has said that Communism is the wave of the future and that capitalism is dead. It is really sad. It is very tragic. So, he’s gone unless there’s a miracle. That’s why the people in Miami are praying because that’s about the only thing that is now between Elián and a very, very tragic future. And if he resists, he will have an accident.

NR: What do you mean?

Reich: He’ll have an accident like other people have had accidents in Communist countries. I think he’s too young. If he were 14 years old or 17 or something, it would be a different story. Of course, he probably wouldn’t be sent back if he were that age. But, I think he’ll go back and have a relatively normal life for a while and then they’ll make sure that he is properly indoctrinated and that he comes out when he’s a teenager. We will see Elián as one of the young leaders of the Union of Young Communists giving anti-American speeches and saying that when he was in Miami they tried to brain-wash him, that his mother made a terrible mistake in trying to take him to the United States because she was mistaken and didn’t know what the United States was really like and on and on. The fellow travelers here, the World Council of Churches and all the other groups that have supported Communist movements and Communist governments for many, many years, will say, “See? He didn’t want to be here in the first place.”