6.21.00
Don't Give Up on California

6.15.00
Double or Nothing

5.25.00
Free the Freeh Files

5.23.00
Free the Freeh Files

5.19.00
Cuddle & Huddle

5.16.00
Gore Has No Stocks!

5.11.00
Sink The Feminists, Not The Subs

5.05.00
O'Connor's Kindness, and His Faith

5.03.00
The Case for Hearings

6/21/00 6:00 p.m.
Don't Give Up on California
Gore might be vulnerable in the Golden State.

By Kate O'Beirne is NR's Washington editor.

Field poll of California voters, released earlier this week, briefly provided welcome good news for the Gore campaign. The media hyped the survey, which showed Gore with an 11 point lead among likely voters, as though it's newsworthy to find a Democrat ahead in the Golden State. But even this small consolation was not to last. The day after the Field results were released, a poll by Public Opinion Strategies found the candidates in a dead heat in California, with Gore leading Bush by only three points. The latter poll is more in line with other California surveys. A GOP polling expert explains that a Republican can expect to see his California numbers about ten points behind national match-ups, so Bush's average 6 point lead in nationwide polls would mean a 4 point deficit in California.

Given Democrats' recent sweep of Sacramento, and Gore's assiduous courting of the state — he has visited every six weeks for the past seven years — the Vice President should have a double-digit lead in California. And, while he has to be favored to carry the state in November, Bush should be able to best Bob Dole's 38 percent vote in 1996, and an energetic effort by Ralph Nader could prove costly to Gore.

When Republicans claim that a Gore "must have" state could be a "might have," maybe they're not just California Dreamin'.

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