11/07/00 3:50 p.m.
Hour by Hour
What to watch for tonight.

Kate O’Beirne is NR’s Washington editor.

he evening will begin on a pleasant note, with Bush carrying Indiana and Kentucky when those polls close at 6 p.m. At 7 p.m., things could become a bit stickier.

If the Bush brothers pull off a Florida win, Republicans can take a deep breath. The governor can win without Florida, but be prepared to spend the next couple of hours with a calculator — it won't be easy. Bush could still do it — with New Mexico, Wisconsin, Maine, Oregon, Missouri, Iowa, West Virginia, and Tennessee.

In the Senate, Republicans aren't counting on a GOP win for Bill McCollum. Should he pull an upset, the Democrats won't take the Senate — even if Sen. Chuck Robb holds his Virginia seat. The GOP will pick up an open Democratic seat in VA-2. Republicans can afford to lose Florida Rep. Clay Shaw, and could pick up a seat in FL-3 against Rep. Corinne Brown.

At 7:30, more good news for Bush, with wins in North Carolina and Ohio (no Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio). If Bush hasn't carried Florida, he needs West Virginia. There could be a helpful GOP pickup in WV-2, by Shelly Moore Capito, but a loss by freshman Rep. Robin Hayes (R-NC) will keep hope alive for Dick Gephardt.

Texas comes in at 8 P.M., but so too does Gore's liberal base — Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Maryland. Should Bush lose Michigan and Pennsylvania (without Florida), remember it's all but over if he doesn't take Missouri. To stay alive, Gore needs Michigan and Pennsylvania (without Florida). Republicans figure they've lost Sen. Bill Roth in Delaware, but hope that their incumbents in Michigan and Missouri hold on. Did conservative Jim Talent win the governorship? A Bob Franks win in New Jersey would be a major upset, and Majority Leader Trent Lott could go to bed early.

There is a good chance for GOP pickups in open House seats in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Missouri. In New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Rush Holt could lose, and GOP prospects to hold the House will be further improved if Mike Ferguson holds Bob Franks's seat in NJ-7. Republicans are looking at a loss in their open OK-2 seat. Arkansas reports at 8:30, and we'll know if vulnerable GOP incumbent Jay Dickey held on.

Did she do it? We'll know at the witch's hour, when New York results are reported at 9 P.M. Bush will win most of these states, but the electoral prizes are New York, Minnesota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. Will Gore be the first candidate since George McGovern to lose his home state?

If, by 10 P.M., George Bush is still threading the electoral college needle, he'll need Iowa and New Mexico (badly!). Heading out west, Republicans hope to have bagged a few extra House seats (including Utah Democrat Dennis Moore's), so they can afford a few loses on the left coast. Sen. Conrad Burns could lose in Montana, without disturbing Sen. Lott's slumbers. Lott is counting on taking a Senate seat in Nevada, where Bush is ahead in the polls, but Gore is betting on a win.

With about a third of the vote in California by mail, when will we know? House results in about four tight races, including Rep. Jim Rogan's, could take some time too.