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ro-regulation
groups credit the government with providing the solution to the
corporate fraud problem that can be traced to the 1929 crash. At
the time, allegations of widespread fraud forced publicly held companies
to submit regular reports that met certain standards.
Congress did
first delegate the FTC to regulate accounting. And the job was later
passed to the SEC and in the end to an independent entity, the FASB
(Financial Accounting Standards Board). All of which was good news.
The new transparency rules financed the emergence of the U.S. as
the preeminent economic power in the world.
Yet free-market
economists need not concede this success to government regulation.
The practice of audited financial reporting was not initiated by
regulators. In fact, it was a voluntary action on the part of U.S.
Steel that pioneered the practice at the turn of the century. Market
forces identified the need and provided a solution. The government
actions only accelerated the move towards transparency.
During the
last two decades, we've seen an increasing focus on the incentives
in executive compensation plans. Unfortunately, long-run value creation
was not the only way that management could increase compensation.
Management could also benefit from raising share prices in the short
run. Options could be exercised, capital could be raised, and so
on. There was continuous pressure to produce a share-price hike,
even if it was of a temporary nature.
Then, the economic
environment of the 1990s led to a significant expansion of the investment
horizon. The future began to weigh much more heavily on current
valuations. Corporations were under greater pressure to deliver
the earnings estimates and/or beat them. Those companies who failed
to meet their estimates faced the heat on Wall Street. And in response
to market demands companies began to "manage" their earnings.
Here's an analogy.
Most accountants automatically estimate an individual's taxes under
alternative scenarios (the simple form, alternative minimum tax,
etc.). Corporate accountants do the same. And if a personal accountant
has a pretty good idea of an individual's future income, he can
offer planning that can help smooth out the taxable income stream.
So the question some corporations have asked is why not do that
for earnings, too?
Looking back
it is clear that corporations did in fact begin to do this. In addition
to the GAAP earnings or earnings calculated using the Generally
Accepted Accounting Principles we began to see a proliferation
of profit reporting variations where one time charges became the
norm. The pro forma reporting era had begun.
To continue
with the tax accounting analogy, a criticism of pro forma reporting
is that some companies did not also report the income/earnings
as they were calculated under the various alternative scenarios
much like accountants do when they calculate our taxes. If
the corporations had also simultaneously reported the earnings under
GAAP, investors may have been able to identify those companies who
were managing the short-run profits without regard for the long
run. (This does not rule out getting fooled by illegal or dishonest
behavior.)
In the aftermath
of the Enron debacle, the financial press has focused on companies
that may have somewhat similar and hopefully less significant
accounting problems. In fact, some reports suggest that the
difference between the pro forma and the GAAP earnings of the S&P
500 companies may be as high as 70%. Other people estimate that
the Nasdaq 100 companies reported losses to the SEC that were as
much as four-times larger than the losses reported to shareholders.
The implication is that the accounting problems go well beyond Enron
and a few other companies. If the problem is as large as reported
by some analysts, we're going to see the carnage in the stock market.
Greater transparency
and more accountability and a change in the incentive structure
are needed to alter corporate behavior. The market is in the process
of providing a solution the corporations that played the
short-run game will suffer the market wrath. And there are some
simple ways to identify the likely losers. One easy method is to
look at the annual reports and count the footnotes. Those with the
least footnotes are likely to have a cleaner balance sheet. The
market has already punished some of the companies that have used
an abundance of footnotes in their reports.
More, investors
must now also be on the watch for pro forma reporting, defined benefit
plans, and explicit or implicit un-hedged positions. Regulation
may force greater disclosure and transparency but that will
not be enough. Market forces will also be key. With an investor
class remaining watchful, the offenders will certainly be punished.
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