Co-Opting the Low-Tax Message
The tax issue is hardly “dead on arrival.”

By Gordon S. Jones, president of the Association of Concerned Taxpayers.
November 12, 2001, 8:00 a.m.

 
n the wake of Republican defeats in the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia last week, a number of commentators are pronouncing the tax issue "dead on arrival" for Republicans. That judgment is dead wrong.

Both Mark Warner, who defeated Mark Earley in Virginia, and Jim McGreevey, who won over Bret Schundler in New Jersey, were forced by their opponents to run to the right on the tax issue and on many others. Both Democrats came out against higher taxes, and opposed certain specific taxes in their campaign materials. It is true that neither one made the kind of cast-iron promises that we would have liked to see. Neither one would sign the "Tax-Free Internet" pledge sponsored by my group, for example. Nor would they sign Americans for Tax Reform's general "Taxpayer Protection Pledge."

That probably means that both will move to raise taxes, and probably sooner rather than later, both being the kind of tax-and-spend-liberals for whom taxing is daily recreation. But all that means is that they have fooled the people of their respective states, not that those people want higher taxes. When McGreevey and Warner raise taxes on their citizens, their citizens won't like it, and it will contribute to the overall cynicism voters have about politicians. But they will have only themselves to blame.

Earley and Schundler, who did sign the aforementioned pledges, were vastly outspent in their campaigns, and suffered other problems. The terrorist attacks of 9/11 greatly hampered Schundler's efforts in New Jersey, and he was cruelly sabotaged by the Republican establishment of that state, because he threatened to break up the cozy sinecures the party bosses have forged for themselves for generations. At that, his loss was a close one.

Earley's campaign is generally thought to have been one of the worst-run in modern times, and at that he lost only narrowly to a mega-millionaire who has been running for state-wide office in Virginia for four years.

The lesson Republican strategists and candidates should take from these losses is not that Americans want higher taxes. Rather, it is that a low-tax message can be co-opted by unscrupulous opponents. Creative ways have to be found to point up the contrasts that exist between taxers and non-taxers.

In view of the war mobilization, tax increases may be inevitable, but they will never be popular. Candidates in next year's elections should focus on belt-tightening, not on taxing.