MAINE [Drew Cline]
Latest AP report, filed at 11:59, still says 2nd District too close to call.
Posted at 11:59 PM
BWAA HA HA HA HA HA HA! [Jonah Goldberg]
Look I don't know what the final tally will be. But it's now clear that the youth vote just didn't show. The liberal blogosphere is grumpy and introspective about it. I love it for reasons I will be writing about for months to come. The cult of the youth voter remains, once again, the most absurd, bogus, childish, romantic and misguided joke of liberal American politics. Period.
Posted at 11:54 PM
SO THIS MEANS THE MATH FAVORS BUSH [Ramesh Ponnuru]
if Fla is a given for W., Kerry has to win Ohio--but Bush doesn't.
Posted at 11:46 PM
OF THE STATES THAT ARE LEFT [KJL]
My former bummed GOP pollster says: "right now i'd much rather be Bush than Kerry...note that the red states are getting 3-4% redder and so are many of the blue states"
Posted at 11:46 PM
DAILY KOS [Jonah Goldberg]
A site I do not visit regularly, to be charitable, is quite grumpy.
Posted at 11:45 PM
ABC CALLS FLA FOR BUSH. AMEN. [KJL]
Posted at 11:44 PM
I TOLD YOU SO. [Shannen Coffin]
It's only a matter of time before Florida, where Bush has nearly a 320,000 vote lead with 97 percent reported, is all but done. Ohio will take a while, but I'm still in the "Bush win" camp there. Bush has more than 100,000 vote lead and Kerry would have to post some big numbers in remaining precincts in Cuyahoga and other city areas. Susan Estrich is trying to patch together a desparate solution in Ohio on Fox right now. While it will likely tighten, it's a long haul. And she's making the "lawyers" argument in Florida, but 300,000 votes is a lot of votes for lawyers to make up. So can we official declare today's exit polls as useless now?
Posted at 11:43 PM
I WANT THIS READER TO MAKE GOOD ON THIS, TOO [KJL]
If Thune and Bush win (!) – a bottle of Chianti of your choice to you and a subscription to NRODT for me and NROD as a gift to any deserving soul (again of your choice) from me.
Posted at 11:43 PM
FOR MARK STEYN RE NEW HAMPSHUH [Peter Robinson]
According to CNN, Hanover has yet to report its votes. The north country will go for Bush in a big way--I'll grant you that. But there going to be enough votes in the big Up Yonder to offset the votes of all those Dartmouth profs? I sure hope so. But I'd feel a lot better if Mark Steyn would put us all at ease.
Posted at 11:42 PM
Woodruff just said high-ranking Dem consceds to her they believe Bush won Florida.
Posted at 11:41 PM
FATIGUE FATIGUE [Rick Brookhiser]
We may be seeing the phenomenon of fatigue fatigue. Election Night 2000 was a madhouse of shifting expectations, shock, incomprehension. Now, an all night tally? Lawsuits up the wazoo? Been there, done that.
Posted at 11:40 PM
The sun will come out...
Posted at 11:40 PM
ON TRADESPORTS, BUSH [Ramesh Ponnuru]
is winning big. Not winning Iowa, but NM and WI.
Posted at 11:37 PM
WHERE IS YOGI BERRA WHEN YOU NEED HIM? [John Hillen]
At 11:30 PM EST, the Presidency still hangs in the balance of course, but it is pretty amazing at this point about how little has changed in the electoral map from 2000. Here we are on the other side of 9/11, the War on Terror, Iraq, Michael Moore, George Soros, and everything else that got everyone so hyped up…..and regardless of the final outcome we’re almost exactly in the same situation as four years ago. As Kerry would say, Plus Ca Change.
Posted at 11:33 PM
ELECTION EVE CHEZ WFB [Rick Brookhiser]
I just returned from WFB's quadrennial election night party. Wonderful people, many of them writers--A.M. Rosenthal, Tom Wolfe, Roger Kimball, the J-man. Taki voted for the Constitution Party, to which the appropriate response is, Veys mir.
Posted at 11:32 PM
DID WE KNOW... [Jonah Goldberg]
That Leonard Peltier is on the ballot?
Posted at 11:31 PM
Posted at 11:28 PM
ONE THING THE PUNDITS DIDN'T APPRECIATE [Jonah Goldberg]
In 2000 Gore did as well as he did in 2000 because Joe Lieberman was on the ticket.
Posted at 11:27 PM
WHILE ROB LONG OOGLES THE SURFER GIRL... [Peter Robinson]
I'm in the office with my thirteen-year old daughter, sneaking looks at the returns as I help her with essays for her applications to a couple of Catholic high schools. You might think I’d trade places with my friend Rob Long. For a moment or two after reading Rob’s post, I thought so myself. The mood passed. How come? There’s something wonderful about helping the next generation scribble away while the workings of the greatest democracy in history cranking away around us. And now that it’s looking as though this race is going to turn out right after all—as though the Republic pulled itself together, took a deep breath, and said, Hell yeah, we’re going to stand up to those barbarians—well, its enough to make a father suppose the United States may still be in good for the children.
What a country.
(If you’d like to trade places for just a weekend, though, Rob—really, you might get a whole new sitcom out of it—you know where to find me, buddy.)
Posted at 11:26 PM
YES, YES, SIGH [KJL]
KJL, The stem cell initiative may well be the most wildly misunderstood piece of legislation in American history. I work in Hollywood (roughly the same job as Rob Long) and everyone I work with was wildly supportive of the measure, and no one actually knew what the measure did. They didn't know how much money would be raised, who would get it, and how it would be repaid. But somehow the mighty stem cell became the thing you had to support if you're enlightened.Me: He's right.
And then I react: ANOTHER HOLLYWOOD CONSERVATIVE!!!
Posted at 11:25 PM
TALKING POINTS MEMO.... [Jonah Goldberg]
Seems to be very whiny that there isn't more hooplah about Ohio lawsuits. Isn't that a bad sign for your side? When you are mopey that people aren't emphasizing the potential for soul-crushing lawsuits?
Posted at 11:23 PM
MONTANA PROJECTION FOR W ON FNC [KJL]
Posted at 11:23 PM
FROM BUSHIE [KJL]
Things are looking very good in Ohio. With the exception of a few Appalachian counties, we’re running significantly ahead of where we were four years ago. For example, we lost Columbus County by 5,000 in 2000; we’re now ahead by 15,000. We’re also ahead by a couple of hundred votes in New Hampshire – and the worst parts of that state (for us) have already been counted. So we’re confident about both states.
Posted at 11:22 PM
W WINS AZ (FNC) [KJL]
Posted at 11:20 PM
EDWARDS QUESTION [Andrew Cline (Manchester Union Leader)]
Edwards not only didn't help Kerry win anything, he also lost his old Senate seat!
Posted at 11:19 PM
AND ONE MORE THING [Rob Long]
Mickey Kaus is on the way to my house right now -- he's late for soup; he'll make the cassoulet (I'm cooking, by the way) and he now tells me that he's "cautiously pessimistic."
But I keep forgetting which side he's really on.
Posted at 11:16 PM
25. The thought of looking at AWOL and his regime
Posted at 11:15 PM
CALIFORNIA CLONING/STEM-CELL FUNDING INITIATIVE [Ramesh Ponnuru]
I wanted it to lose but: 1) It does demonstrate that the claim that Bush's federal policy is blocking everything is wrong, and 2) I think that the vote to ban cloning in the Senate increases tonight.
Posted at 11:15 PM
TEXAS NOTES [KJL]
From David Guenthner:
Good day for Tom DeLay, as he will take out the top 5 D’s on his hit list. The diciest race for Republicans was CD 17, where incumbent Chet Edwards was perceived as having the edge over state Rep. Arlene Wohlgemuth. However, Wohlgemuth leads the early vote by 2 points, with one smaller county from her state House district yet to report. The latest numbers show Edwards with a lead of nearly 1 point, but the only election-day vote to be counted is in the Waco sphere of influence. If Wohlgemuth gets any additional advantage out of Bryan/College Station today, she will likely win. Max Sandlin, Nick Lampson, Charles Stenholm, and Martin Frost are all being blown out.
Posted at 11:13 PM
ROB [Ramesh Ponnuru]
It's the chewy red Burgundy. And maybe the ravishing neighbor.
Posted at 11:13 PM
THE NH GOV... [Jonah Goldberg]
Is down two points which might be a good sign for Bush, because most folks think Benson will win. So if Bush is slightly down it might be a sign that Kerry's best precincts are reporting already.
Posted at 11:12 PM
IT'S THE BURGUNDY, ROB [KJL]
I'll take both a Bush win and a Daschle loss. Call me selfish.
Posted at 11:11 PM
I'M SITTING HERE [Rob Long]
...drinking an excellent excellent red wine, with a bunch of my Venice, California neighbors -- all Dems, really, including a ravishing new neighbor who just moved in down the street (she's a professional surfer) but, surprisingly, everyone is civil and jovial and watching it with happy interest, with less rancor, actually, than Oscar night. Meanwhile, I'm doing my very best to correct the wicked lies all of them have heard and internalized from the ludicrous left...
...and is anyone else besides me at this point willing to toss Bush aside right now for a guaranteed Daschle defeat? Or is that the chewy red Burgundy talking?
Posted at 11:10 PM
California voted for the stem-cell/cloning prop. I blame Arnold. He didn't have to weigh in.
Posted at 11:09 PM
THE MOOD [Jonah Goldberg]
White House mood reportedly improving radically. "We might not even need Ohio.
Posted at 11:08 PM
READER JUST ASKED ME A GOOD QUESTION [KJL]
Did John Edwards do anything for Kerry?
I thought his wife would help, but...no.
Posted at 11:07 PM
KERRY GETS WASHINGTON [KJL]
Posted at 11:06 PM
checked out the demounderground after your post, love this post from there "I turned off my cell after my husband called me freaking, he works nights. You would think since ALL of us know that the media is slanted to the right that they would do the same for the election."
Posted at 11:06 PM
FROM CAPT. IN CAMP TAJI, IRAQ [KJL]
KLO - Have been up since 0300 local watching the returns via the Internet. The Internet cafe's here are full of soldiers interested in the outcome. The mood is electric.
Posted at 11:05 PM
42 PERCENT IN [KJL]
There's about a 1,000 vote diffferent between Daschle goes down. Based on hunch--and believe in justice.
Posted at 11:04 PM
FROM FORMERLY BUMMED GOP POLLSTER [KJL]
"if these performances in red states hold up, we'll win the popular vote! look at NJ. we're gonna lose it, but possibly by much less"
Posted at 11:02 PM
BEGALA BRIGHT SPOTS [Kate O'Beirne]
Obama won big and Phil Crane looks like he's losing. That's it!
Posted at 11:01 PM
IDAHO FOR W. (FNC) [KJL]
Posted at 11:00 PM
BURR BEATS BOWLES IN NC [KJL]
Edwards remains a loser.... (Apologies--RP posted already)
Posted at 10:57 PM
BURR WINS [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Posted at 10:56 PM
FNC CALLS PA. FOR KERRY [KJL]
Posted at 10:56 PM
PA. [Michael Ledeen]
Don't give up yet; Santorum was way behind until 11-1130 PM. Wait half an hour
Posted at 10:55 PM
DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND [KJL]
Sounds like a MUCH more-psycho version of Corner this afternoon.
Posted at 10:53 PM
Keep checking KerrySpot and Battlegrounders
Posted at 10:51 PM
NBC ON PA AND AZ [KJL]
Former for Kerry and latter for Bush
Posted at 10:51 PM
ABC APPARENTLY PROJECTED SPECTER WIN [KJL]
My daydream is over.
Posted at 10:49 PM
Cythia McKinney is headed back to Congress.
Posted at 10:46 PM
THE TEXAS SEATS [Ramesh Ponnuru]
in the House seem to be breaking for the Republicans.
Posted at 10:44 PM
AENEID AND US [Victor Davis Hanson]
As a classicist I should offer this of tonight's ordeal from the first book of Virgil Aeneid (203):
Optimism about tonight's uncertainty.
Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit,
The day will come when even this ordeal shall be sweet to remember (Virgil, 1.203)
Posted at 10:44 PM
JUST PERFECT [KJL]
I just saw the e-mail you posted from another Pennsylvania voter regarding the Specter/Hoeffel race and I wanted to add one more strike against he incumbent. Yesteday the local NPR station was running a piece on him, and he defended himself against the charge that he votes overwhelmingly with the president by claiming that his voting record matches John Kerry's somewhere between 70-80% of the time.
Posted at 10:41 PM
LIFE (AND WAR) GOES ON [KJL]
Frequent NR writer Tom Smith tells me: "Marine Corps and Air Force aircraft are pummeling insurgent positions in Fallujah, and I just received a press release stating, the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force 'will continue to conduct operations and will not cease until Fallujah is free of foreign terrorists and insurgents.'"
Posted at 10:40 PM
THIS IS PROBABLY A GOOD QUESTION [KJL]
Right now, Florida, Ohio and New Jersey are all at 52-47% - so how come they called NJ immediately - and still haven't called these others? (More of theFlorida vote is in than NJ which is merely 80% in now).
Posted at 10:33 PM
John Miller is joking, right?
Posted at 10:31 PM
I'M GETTING A LOT OF THESE [KJL]
I saw your post on Battlegrounders about the Hoeffel/Specter race. The only Republican I didn't vote for was Specter. I had been going back and forth about whether to vote for him, but the last straw was his pro-stem cell research ad with Michael J. Fox. The issue ranks fairly low for me, but given that the Democrats had been attacking Bush on it and the ad ends with "Arlen Specter (emphasis mine) gets it" it was the last straw (along with the reports of the Specter-Kerry signs). Particularly given that I had thought he was far ahead in the polls, and the ad would only hurt Bush.
Posted at 10:30 PM
FOX CALLING BUNNING [Jonah Goldberg]
Posted at 10:29 PM
BUNNING WINS [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Take that, Bob Novak.
Posted at 10:29 PM
PETER JENNINGS [KJL]
to John McCain: " Sen. McCain, do you feel used by President Bush in his campaign this year?" Reader fires back what McCain shoudl have answered with: " "No. But do you, Peter, feel used by the Democrat party?"
Posted at 10:28 PM
GOODBYE, MARTIN FROST [Rod Dreher]
Democratic Congressman Martin Frost just conceded to Republican Congressman Pete Sessions. Frost was the No. 1 Congressional Democrat targeted by Tom DeLay in the Texas redistricting. It's a huge, huge win for the GOP.
Posted at 10:27 PM
THE WORD [KJL]
"Hearing it's possible that NJ will go back into play. Bush total nationally could be 52. " How sweet would that be?
Posted at 10:26 PM
TIGHT IN SD? (BUT ONLY 25 % IN) [KJL]
Daschle - D 50,206 50% Thune - R 49,403 50%
Posted at 10:26 PM
KARL ROVE IS BRILLIANT [KJL]
The huge margins for Kerry in the exit polling led the Dems to call off the lawyers (I've heard Lockhart and Estrich say so on FNC). They say the system worked, so no need to sue.
Posted at 10:24 PM
MORE FROM FORMERLY BUMMED POLLSTER [KJL]
"We're looking STRONG...looks like we picked up two seats already - KY4 and IN9...also looks like Bush will win popular vote as he maxes out red states and does better in NJ, NY, etc."
Posted at 10:23 PM
MORE OFF-TOPIC LATIN TAGS [Alex Rose]
My particular favourite is, Si non oscillas, noli tintinnare, which was engraved on a brass plate above the Playboy Mansion's doorbell. It means, "If you don't swing, don't ring."
That has nothing to do with the election, but who knew Hugh Hefner was such an adept classicist?
My own philosophy is, Omnis homo mendax -- Every man is a liar.
Posted at 10:21 PM
I CAN'T DISAGREE WITH THIS READER [KJL]
I’ve learned something about conservative commentators: You all are a bunch of nervous Nellies. Everything looks as though the glass is half empty when you should be saying it is half full.
Posted at 10:20 PM
GOOD VIBRATIONS? [KJL]
From Bushie: "I’m told that very smart and able people in NH think we’re going to win it as well, based on the returns we’re seeing. I don’t want to get ahead of the data – but the feel is good."
Well, it was like 100 points ahead in exit polls for W., right?
Posted at 10:19 PM
FROM SAME DC JOURNALIST [KJL]
who has been checking in on Ohio:
The more interesting suit seems to be the one in Hamilton County involving the provisional ballot fight using Bush Vs. Gore as the precedent. Spokesman for the Ohio Department of State says they will fight the lawsuit, but won't worry about it until after the election. Can't say if the individual filing the suit is a Dem because opensecrets.org is down due to high traffic. Of course, the Dems hinted that they'd use the provisional ballot issue in this state as the main hammer, but we thought it would come AFTER the election, not before. Ohio govt can be expected to fight vigorously that its provisional ballot handling is uniform and fair.
Posted at 10:18 PM
BEDTIME [John J. Miller]
I'm calling it a night. But then again, I've got to be on BBC at 5 am, explaining what it all means to the good people of Great Britain. So it's more like another hour of TV watching in bed, then a short nap, then up for the day. I'll tell everyone in the UK that The Corner says hello.
Posted at 10:17 PM
EXCUSE ME... [Mark Steyn]
Nick Clooney isn't George Clooney's dad. He's Rosemary Clooney's sister. This is a conservative website, remember?
Re: NH. The small Kerry lead looking a wee bit maxed out with most of the Dem-friendly Mass border country in. 50-49, with the North Country still to report, and it's filled with Bush signs - mostly hand-painted.
Posted at 10:16 PM
EC COUNT [KJL]
193=W / 112 Kerry
Posted at 10:15 PM
BUSH WINS MISSOURI [KJL]
Posted at 10:14 PM
(BY THE WAY, NOTICE THE COOL ELECTION NIGHT HOMEPAGE?) [KJL]
Posted at 10:13 PM
CNN CALLS ARKANSAS FOR BUSH [KJL]
Even with a Clinton visit this weekend (Because of?)
Posted at 10:12 PM
MAKE GOOD ON THAT! [KJL]
A reader: "I pla[n]y on buying a NRODT sub tomorrow :-)"
Posted at 10:09 PM
FROM A FRIEND AT A CABLE NETWORK [Ramesh Ponnuru]
"The mood just became sour. Everyone thinks Bush just swept Ohio, FL, and will be re-elected decisively based on readjusted exit polling."
Posted at 10:08 PM
RE: IHT [Alex Rose]
Regarding the IHT story posted by Kathryn on how the U.S. fails "best global practice," with the greatest of respect to "Konrad Olszewski, an election observer stationed in Miami by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe" -- important people, don't you know -- who complains that "monitoring elections in Serbia a few months ago was much simpler," isn't Serbia, like, a lot smaller than the U.S.?
Posted at 10:08 PM
looks so much more confident than Lockhart. No poker face on that Dem, even.
Posted at 10:07 PM
FLORIDA FOR W, BY THREE? [KJL]
Returns, Exit and Others, give Bush three point lead, say Bushies
Posted at 10:06 PM
MESSENGER KILLED, THEN RESURRECTED? [KJL]
An e-mail: " I cursed your name earlier this evening when you dashed my hopes of a W victory with your pessimistic commentary (based upon early exit polls). However, your subsequent posts have been outstanding and I forgive you of your earlier transgressions. "
Posted at 10:05 PM
FOR MR. DERB [Fr. Rutler]
Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum
Cicero: Pro Murena 36
(Translation provided for the major news network commentators): Nothing more unpredictable that the mob; nothing more obscure than popular opinion; nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.
Posted at 10:04 PM
RICHARDSON ON FOX [Ramesh Ponnuru]
says Kerry will win NM by 1 percent, which I think means Bush takes it.
Posted at 10:03 PM
POETRY BAN [John Derbyshire]
Since I've broken the taboo, this one of Belloc's is always worth recycling at election time.
The accursed power which stands on Privilege
(And goes with Women, and Champagne, and Bridge)
Broke - and Democracy resumed her reign:
(Which goes with Bridge, and Women and Champagne).
Posted at 10:02 PM
MY NIGHT SO FAR [Andy McCarthy]
Glass of chianti
Fettucini with meat sauce. Glass of chianti.
Voter, lifelong Dem, stops by and tells me voted for Bush -- first time even vote for GOP.
Rib-eye steak, carrots, potato, glass of chianti.
New York cheese cake, Remy Martin.
Feeling much better about things!
Posted at 10:02 PM
MORE OFF TOPIC [Shannen Coffin]
Father, my confession on the Aeneid was that I faked reading it in my freshman year of college. My term paper was heavy on the Iliad and Odysseym as a result. So I didn't read it in English, let alone in Latin, Derb (and we're not impressed, really).
Posted at 10:01 PM
A GUBERNATORIAL SURPRISE IN DELAWARE? [John Hood]
Democratic Gov. Ruth Ann Minner in Delaware was supposed to be one of the safest incumbents this year, but with half the vote reporting the GOP nominee, Bill Lee, is actually leading this race. Could there be a surprise here?
Posted at 10:01 PM
10 PM [KJL]
Cnn projects W=Utah
Posted at 10:00 PM
A FEW AGO [KJL]
W said from White House ""I believe I will win." Looked confident, as did all the women (mom, wife, kids) in the room.
Posted at 09:59 PM
WITH THE GOOD GUYS [KJL]
We’re...watching the election results with a young man from Iraq who is in the U.S. speaking to groups around the country about the situation in Iraq. He is here to thank Americans for his liberation. I just finished explaining the electoral vote system to him. He is sitting here with a map of the U.S. following the results with an intensity that brings a tear to my eye. Guess who he would be voting for.
Posted at 09:57 PM
SMART GUY! [KJL]
An e-mail: "About 90 minutes ago I bought 70 contracts for Bush @ $28 on Tradesports ($220 total) and have made about $140 profit so far (shares are at $48)……it’s still going up."
Posted at 09:54 PM
NICK CLOONEY [KJL]
loses by 11
Posted at 09:54 PM
BY MY MATH--ONE SCENARIO [Rich Lowry]
If Bush wins FLA and Ohio (plausible), and loses NH and Nev (who knows? could happen), its 269-269. Then what happens in Maine second congressinal? Has it been called? What happens in Hawaii?
Posted at 09:53 PM
MORE GOP CONFIDENCE [KJL]
From an insider:
We are feeling very confident about Florida. So are people on the ground there, who know a good deal about these things. Among the specific facts worth noting:
Posted at 09:50 PM
GOP HIGH UPS [KJL]
Say Martinez wins. Totally confident re Ohio and Fla. Don't worry about Missouri and Arkansas.
Posted at 09:49 PM
BUSH AND MARTINEZ [Ramesh Ponnuru]
The president is running ahead of the Senate candidate, which was not I think what the Bush campaign expected.
Posted at 09:48 PM
IS THIS A JOKE? [KJL]
MIAMI The global implications of the U.S. election are undeniable, but international monitors at a polling station in southern Florida said Tuesday that voting procedures being used in the extremely close contest fell short in many ways from the best global practices.
Posted at 09:48 PM
MICHAEL MOORE CRYING IN HIS RAMEN NOODLES? [KJL]
WASHINGTON - This was not the breakout year for young voters that some had anticipated. Fewer than one in 10 voters Tuesday were 18 to 24, about the same proportion of the electorate as in 2000, exit polls indicated. Still, with voter turnout expected to be higher overall, more young people appeared to have come out.
Posted at 09:45 PM
MORE FLA [Ramesh Ponnuru]
"Palm Beach County is coming in with a bigger swing to Bush than Broward. There are only five counties in all of Florida that have swung AT ALL to Kerry, none with more than a 1% swing -- the biggest being Leon (Tallahassee)."
Posted at 09:45 PM
BROWARD COUNTY, FLA [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Same Bushie: "Broward County, the Democrats biggest county in net votes, there is a 5% swing to Bush with 80% reporting."
Posted at 09:44 PM
CBS CALLS DEMINT [KJL]
Posted at 09:42 PM
NOTE A SHOCKER... [KJL]
...but would be sad. Phil Crane down 14 points, 31 percent reporting
Posted at 09:40 PM
JUST YESTERDAY [KJL]
Rich said to me, "Do you need to tell Cornerites to stay on topic Election night? Like, no poetry?" Kathryn: "Rich, it's ELECTION NIGHT. People will be focused like a laser on W."
Okay, fine. You win, Rich. I have lost control. I blame the Chianti.
Posted at 09:36 PM
FEELING BETTER AND BETTER... [Jonah Goldberg]
That is all.
Posted at 09:36 PM
FOR FR. RUTLER [John Derbyshire]
Sixth book of the Aeneid, hm? Chapter 21 perhaps?
Nox ruit, Aenea; nos flendo ducimus horas.
Hic locus est, partis ubi se via findit in ambas:
dextera quae Ditis magni sub moenia tendit,
hac iter Elysium nobis; at laeva malorum
exercet poenas et ad impia Tartara mittit.
[Night speeds by,
And we, Aeneas, lose it in lamenting.
Here comes the place where cleaves our way in twain.
Thy road, the right, toward Pluto's dwelling goes,
And leads us to Elysium. But the left
Speeds sinful souls to doom, and is their path
To Tartarus th' accurst...]
Posted at 09:35 PM
OHIO [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Same Bushie as talked to me about Fla: "Bush has gained ground over his 2000 percentage in more counties than Kerry has. And remember, we have a 3+ point margin to work with." Trying to get a little more info.
Posted at 09:35 PM
ANOTHER REPUBLICAN WIN FOR GOVERNOR [John Hood]
Republican Jim Douglas has been reelected governor of that GOP-trending state of Vermont. He was first elected to the post in 2002.
Posted at 09:34 PM
MEN, WOMEN & POLLS [KJL]
Hearing versions of this from a few:
Posted at 09:33 PM
FROM MARY MATALIN [KJL]
Pass on how off the exits and reality are. Ohio still unknown but lines in franklin co (ours) were over 2 hours long. Wi tied.
Posted at 09:31 PM
:) [Jonah Goldberg]
From a reader:
This conservative anti-Kerry Dem is feeling a whole lot better than I did a few minutes ago. W is right where he needs to be in Ohio. The bulk of the early returns (9pm) were in two of the most pro-Kerry counties in the state Cuyahoga and Trumbull. In the few rural and Columbus suburban counties W is right where he needs to be. Could it be those blasted exit polls are screwier than that screwy rabbit. Elmer get yer gun! Dave from Columbus
Posted at 09:31 PM
just called on FNC for W
Posted at 09:30 PM
FLA. SIGNS [Shannen Coffin]
Good sign in a ballot measure in Florida. Abortion parental notification law winning by overwhelming margin. That's likely a good sign for the pro-life candidate in the Presidential race.
Posted at 09:30 PM
FROM ED GILLESPIE ON LAURA INGRAHAM [KJL]
We have exceeded our precinct goals in Ohio, so we feel really good about it.
Posted at 09:28 PM
LOTS OF 9:30 CLOSINGS, ALL TOO EARLY TOO CALL, FNC SAYS [KJL]
Posted at 09:25 PM
MAP WATCHING [Jim Robbins]
The 2004 map on Drudge is looking a lot like 2000 minus NH for Bush. Meaning, if all the rest of the states go the way it looks like they might, Bush wins.
Posted at 09:23 PM
HEARING FROM A FEW BUSH CAMPERS [KJL]
Florida: Overperforming our 2000 result along the i-4 corridor; winning Orange County and Pasco County, both of which we lost last time; we over performed our vote goal in Democrat Broward county
Posted at 09:21 PM
OHIO [Jim Robbins]
Hamilton Co OH 2000: Bush 54%, Gore 42%, NAder 2.5% Now, Bush 56% Kerry 44% (not much yet counted though)
Posted at 09:17 PM
GOOD SIGN? [Rich Lowry]
According to exit data, 52% of Floridans approved of Bush's job performance.
Posted at 09:16 PM
Drew Cline at the Union Leader points out: Kerry's win in Maine was called very early, based on exit polls! Second District still very much in play.
Posted at 09:13 PM
from my formerly bummed Republican pollster type:
the returns are suggesting Bush has a chance and that Bush could win the popular vote...
Posted at 09:12 PM
HAVE I MISSED SOMETHING? [Father George Rutler]
While I was sitting here quietly reading the Sixth Book of the Aeneid and listening to some Gregorian chant, a friend telephoned and said something about an election. Is there an election going on? I may have missed something.
Posted at 09:10 PM
LOTS OF PEOPLE SAYING GOOD THINGS ABOUT FLORIDA [KJL]
Rothenberg almost ready to call FL for Bush.
Posted at 09:09 PM
IS IT ME [KJL]
or is Chris Matthews infatuated with Vanessa Kerry? Devoted Hardball watchers will udnerstand.
Posted at 09:08 PM
TRADESPORTS [Ramesh Ponnuru]
The markets are betting on Bush losing--but no longer on his losing Fla. Maybe there's a rebound starting.
Posted at 09:06 PM
REALLY SMART PERSON [KJL]
who has been feeling queasy since last week is feeling better right now--like in last hour.
Posted at 09:06 PM
THE DRIFT OF THINGS [John Derbyshire]
As the house pessimist, I'm allowed to say this: I have a bad feeling. But then again .....
Posted at 09:04 PM
9PM PROJECTIONS [KJL]
W=Texas; ND; KS; SD;Wy.; Neb (4 out of 5 electoral, def)
COL Electoral Vote ballot ref fails Kerry=NY; RI;
Posted at 09:01 PM
COLORADO EV AMENDMENT LOSES [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Posted at 09:01 PM
FROM DC JOURNALIST (CITED EARLIER, TOO) [KJL]
The Ohio Dem party did not file suit to keep the polls open longer. They filed suit to allow those waiting in lines alleged to be 3 to 4 hours long (they have affidavits taken from people in line in the 5 p.m. hour), asking the court to allow them to be handed provisional or paper ballots (not sure what that second method is supposed to accomplish). Sources tell me that the judge was sympathetic to the argument and was going to grant it.
Posted at 09:00 PM
BUT SERIOUSLY.. [Jonah Goldberg]
I'm feeling much better about Florida, which makes this a long haul. It also unravels a lot of the b.s. loaded into the exit polls in Fla. If, in fact, Bush is doing so much better in Fla than those polls would have indicated, than you have to assume that the exit polls were similarly wrong everywhere else too.
Posted at 08:59 PM
MY BUMMED [KJL]
GOP pollster type from hours ago is now saying (was down yesterday too): "i'm feeling more confident. this is going to be close. some of these exit polls were bulls**t...."
Posted at 08:57 PM
DID YOU KNOW... [Jonah Goldberg]
That you can tell by the way I use my walk I'm a woman's man with no time to talk?
Posted at 08:56 PM
FIRST GOOD NEWS I'VE SEEN [Michael Graham]
Watching Susan Estrich battling defensively on FNC, saying the “people in Boston say if the exit polls are right then Bush wins.” Her entire message was one of annoyance at the lack of alignment between the exit polls and the results thus far.
Joe Lockhart didn’t look too happy on FNC, either. Are the wheels falling off for the Democrats just as they reach the finish line?
Posted at 08:56 PM
EMAIL FROM A BUSHIE [Ramesh Ponnuru]
"Virtually every county in Florida that is mostly reported has swung to us since 2000, the median being something like 5-6% in terms of vote margin. We’ll see how the Gold Coast comes in, but with numbers like this we should not have a problem."
Posted at 08:52 PM
MITCH DANIELS TOO [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Two conservative wins.
Posted at 08:50 PM
DANIELS WINS IN INDIANA [John Hood]
Mitch Daniels is now called the winner in the Indiana governor's race. That’s a GOP pickup.
Posted at 08:50 PM
COBURN WINS [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Contrary to Denny Hastert's prediction.
Posted at 08:49 PM
CNN projecting Coburn wins.
Posted at 08:48 PM
I TAKE THAT BACK [KJL]
On FNC, I am told, Kristol is making a coherent case that the exit polls are seriously underestimating Bush support - and I believe him
Posted at 08:47 PM
FLA RETURNS [Jonah Goldberg]
I wish someone would explain which counties in Florida are reporting, because if this is was a across the board I'd be pretty psyched. Bush is leading by ten points.
Posted at 08:41 PM
HEARING FROM GOP SOURCE [KJL]
NAACP is filing suit to keep polls open in Detroit Until Midnight
Posted at 08:41 PM
ANOTHER INSIDE READ ON EXITS: [KJL]
Either there is a huge methodological flaw in the exit polling data, or there has been a transformative change in the nature of the electorate. The former is far more likely. Which means that much of the media's narrative of the election so far looks to be very much wide of the mark. Imagine that.
Posted at 08:40 PM
IF YOU NEEDED MORE EVIDENCE... [Rich Lowry]
...that the afternoon exits were off--they had Kerry narrowly winning Virginia, 51-49 I believe. The number just flashed up on Fox--not sure how many precincts--had Bush at 56.
Posted at 08:38 PM
FOX JUST CALLED BUSH IN VA [KJL]
Posted at 08:37 PM
GOOD NEWS FROM TEXAS [Rod Dreher]
Early returns indicate that in the 32nd Congressional District here in Dallas, Pete Sessions is beating the pants off of Martin Frost, the Democrat who is the senior member of the Texas Congressional delegation. It looks like Tom DeLay is about to collect his first Lone Star scalp.
Posted at 08:37 PM
CANCELLING VOTES [John Derbyshire]
Mathematically speaking, it is not quite the case that husband & wife voting for different parties cancel out. Such a vote might affect a race. If there are three candidates, for example, getting A--99, B--100, and C--101 votes with husband & wife not voting; and if husband votes for A and wife votes for B, you now have a tied race, instead of a C victory.
And of course, if husband and wife register in different states...
Posted at 08:31 PM
GOP KIDS--GO TO TOWN [KJL]
"send some nr interns over to CNN in times sq. with bush signs... tons of kedwards but no b/c"
Posted at 08:30 PM
THANKS, JOHN EDWARDS [KJL]
NBC projects NC for Bush
Posted at 08:26 PM
A LITTLE SUNSHINE [Kate O'Beirne]
I'm told that a private polling outfit has Bush up one in Florida.
Posted at 08:26 PM
OUT WITH YOU [Rod Dreher]
My wife just called me here at the paper from home. She said that Matthew, our five-year-old diehard Bush fan, has set himself up in front of the TV with his wooden-block puzzle of the 50 States. Whenever the networks call a state for Kerry, he throws it out. She said it's hilarious what a political junkie he already is. He exclaimed, "Maine! How can Maine go for Kerry!" Out Maine went from the puzzle. Rich, put Matthew on the list to be an NR intern in 2020.
Posted at 08:17 PM
shows counties on online map. Useful
Posted at 08:14 PM
CBS call SC for Bush.
Posted at 08:08 PM
GA, KY, OHIO [KJL]
approve gay marriage bans (AP)
Posted at 08:07 PM
BUSH'S FMR BUDGET CHIEF LEADS IN INDIANA [John Hood]
Mitch Daniels, who ran the OMB in the early Bush administration, is currently leading incumbent Democrat Joe Kernan in the race for Indiana governor. Looking good there for a potential GOP pickup of a governorship the party hasn’t held since the 1980s.
Posted at 08:02 PM
8 PM CALLS(FNC) [KJL]
Fla Pa NH, Missouri, Missis.=Can't call NJ=Kerry (FNC) Ill=Kerry Tenn=Bush Ok=BushMass=Kerry Md=Kerry Maine=Kerry Alabama=Bush Del=Kerry
Posted at 08:01 PM
VORERS FEELING BAD [Rod Dreher]
Just moved on wire: AP exit polling today found voters pessimistic. "Majorities of voters said the war in Iraq is going badly and the economy is not doing well. But three-fourths said they are worried about the possibility of another terrorist attack, a factor playing to Bush's strength." AP also found that 18-24 year olds broke for Kerry by +15 ... but didn't turn out in any greater numbers this year than in 2000. So much for Rock the Vote.
Posted at 07:50 PM
MAP [Jim Robbins]
CSPAN map shows SC, NC and VA with Bush in the 60% range -- though with few % yet counted. Still, why too close to call? WHat key precincts are they looking at? Is the MSM being over-cautious?
Posted at 07:49 PM
I KNOW YOU WERE WONDERING [KJL]
Evidently George Clooney's dad isn't looking good in his congressional bid.
Posted at 07:44 PM
WHAT I'M DOING [Wesley J. Smith]
I am feeling very patriotic at the moment. I just put out the flag. Urge others to also. We are privileged to live in the greatest country that has ever existed.
Posted at 07:43 PM
DEMOCRATS WIN GOVERNOR RACES IN NC, WV [John Hood]
Two of the 11 governors' races up for grabs this year have been called. Democratic Gov. Mike Easley has been reelected in North Carolina. In West Virginia, Democrat Joe Manchin has been elected. That is a Democratic retention of an open seat. No change yet in national party distribution of governors.
Posted at 07:40 PM
EW--HALLOWEEN CANDY PANCAKES [KJL]
This will keep you up, though.
Posted at 07:40 PM
THE BLOGOSPHERE IS IN 2004 WHAT THE MSM WAS IN 2000 [KJL]
That's what Hugh Hewitt says. I'm not sure the exit polling reporting was that bad. I hope not.
Definitely TMI. But again, I cautioned. Think Drudge did too. Maybe everyone should have played basketball midday.
Posted at 07:37 PM
WEST VA. [KJL]
called for W. a few ago on CNN
Posted at 07:35 PM
DC JOURNALIST TELLS ME [KJL]
Posted at 07:34 PM
RE: DEM [Shannen Coffin]
KLo's Democratic Insider is playing the hand you should expect. If Bush is ahead at the end of the night, the Dems will cry 1) PROVISIONAL BALLOTS carry us over the top; and 2) you're disenfranchising people if you don't count them. Remember that provisional ballots are presumed NOT to be lawful ballots. They are only supposed to count only where someone is a lawfully registered voter who, for any number of reasons (clerical error, etc) does not show up on the roster on election day. It is not carte blanche for unregistered voters to vote. So take "Democratic Insider" with a grain of salt, too. He's priming the pump for a Kerry disaster.
Posted at 07:31 PM
THE GOOD NEWS... [Jonah Goldberg]
First of all, I still think Bush will win. But NRO's traffic will continue to soar because we won't know that until the absentee ballots in Florida and Ohio are counted. Win-win baby!
Posted at 07:31 PM
WHAT WERE YOU THINKING? [John J. Miller]
Derb: You encouraged your wife to go out and cancel your vote? Why didn't you slash her tires?
Posted at 07:30 PM
map looks worth watching. smells and bells.
Posted at 07:29 PM
THE WORST MOMENT OF THE NIGHT SO FAR [Jonah Goldberg]
Was the tone of the Fox roundtable in which many of the questions were predicated on a hypothetical Bush loss.
Posted at 07:29 PM
I HAVE NOT DISAPPEARED [Jonah Goldberg]
I have a longstanding tradition of spending election night at a friend's house. His Wi-Fi is not letting me log on. So I am upstairs in his office right now away from TV and bar and everything else. I'll report back more in a moment.
Posted at 07:25 PM
VA. [Jim Robbins]
Kerry had an amazing ground game in Northern VA. There were Kerry signs and stickers everywhere. But hard to believe he can actually win the Old Dominion.
Posted at 07:25 PM
most of you still have time to vote. and know people who have not voted. Get on them. Drive them.
Posted at 07:24 PM
THE POLL THAT MATTERS [Shannen Coffin]
Just got home and gave my 18 month old daughter Caroline a bath. I am happy to report that she was completely unflummoxed by the morning and afternoon exit polls. But very interested in how far daddy could squirt water from her rubber duckie onto the dog Molly.
Posted at 07:22 PM
I LIKE [KJL]
the current drudge headline: "ENOUGH OF THE MEDIA EXITS; LETS COUNT THE PEOPLE'S VOTES! "
Posted at 07:22 PM
SOMETHING I'VE HEARD A FEW TIMES [KJL]
But I'm not confirming. "Supposedly the nets have numbers that COMBINE exits with early-voting samples -- and these numbers are different, generally better for Bush."
Posted at 07:20 PM
gives Bush popular and Kerry electoral.
Posted at 07:18 PM
in Ga. is called too.
Posted at 07:15 PM
WHAT HAPPENED TO "WE WON'T CALL?" [KJL]
Jon Adler calls from his car Ohio: Abc radio there just called Senate race for Voinivich. Well, duh, but. POLLS ARE NOT CLOSED.
Posted at 07:13 PM
WHAT I'M DRINKING [KJL]
Posted at 07:09 PM
STATES CALLED (FNC) [KJL]
Ga, Ind, Ky=Bush Vt=Kerry Va., too Close to Call
CNN: SC too close to call.
was on the phone, may have missed one.
CLArIFICATION: NOT TOO CLOSE TO CALL. JUST RETURNS NOT SUFFICIENTLY IN.
Posted at 07:03 PM
FUTURES MARKETS [Ramesh Ponnuru]
I wasn't surprised that Bush futures at tradesports tanked when those exit polls came out, but I am a little surprised that they haven't recovered yet. May be a buying opportunity.
Posted at 07:00 PM
A DEM INSIDER SAYS [KJL]
How you feeling, I ask? "Good. keep in mind that if Kerry's ahead or even a little behind in the battlegrounds tonight, the provisional ballots will probably put him over the top eventually."
Posted at 06:52 PM
BUSH LEADING [KJL]
in Indiana and Kentucky
Posted at 06:49 PM
BUSH UP 7 IN NH? [KJL]
(That's from Drudge, forget at this point if it's on The Corner). But--HELLO, Exits don't mean much....
Posted at 06:42 PM
RE: ELEX NITECAPS [Rod Dreher]
For me, I'll just have to sling a shot of Grey Goose into a steaming mug of lemony Theraflu. Most of us here at the Dallas Morning News editorial page are sick, and it's cold and rainy outside. I'm about ready to start swilling the Thera-tinis now (with a Mentho-Lyptus cough drop instead of an olive), especially if I keep reading these dreary exit polls. I keep checking into the Corner for uplifting "never you mind those exit polls" commentary, which is keeping my spirits up. I'm trying not to be Pollyannaish about it, but I find it impossible to believe that every pre-election poll in the country was so wrong. Hey, it could happen, but I'm not ready to panic yet. It's going to be interesting to see if the Texas GOP can manage tonight to knock off five targeted Democratic Congressional incumbents, including Hill stalwarts Martin Frost, Charlie Stenholm and Chet Edwards. If these guys go down, Tom DeLay and his redistricting plan will have driven a stake through the heart of the Texas Democratic party. I actually hope Chet Edwards pulls through, for reasons of policy, and because his opponent, State Rep. Arlene Wohlgemuth, has been running a perfectly awful commercial about gay adoption, making it sound like Rep. Edwards, a Baptist from Waco, is tossing Our Precious Babies into the arms of perverts.
Posted at 06:41 PM
WHERE I AM HEADED [KJL]
An NRO friend e-mails:
My Dad makes the world's best Manhattans - vermouth, plus rye whiskey, plus a bit of cherry juice. Don't listen to anyone who tells you to leave out the cherr juice. Dad makes a jar of Manhattans for each Easter, Thanksgiving and Christmas. I left an unfinished jar in my refrigerator for half a year - took it out, and ate the cherries, which had been marinating in the Manhattan. Bliss!
Posted at 06:38 PM
Passed along: To voters in the Florida Panhandle patiently waiting to vote late this evening despite the exit polls: "Annoy the media -- stay in line."
Posted at 06:37 PM
Drudge reports Ohio tied in latest exits
Posted at 06:18 PM
MORE THEO [Rod Dreher]
I know it's just me, but I find it hard today to think about the election because of the murder of Dutch filmmaker and Islam critic Theo van Gogh. Here's a cover story I did for NRODT two years ago, in the wake of the assassination of politician and anti-immigrant crusader Pim Fortuyn, explaining why the Netherlands was in a very, very bad situation with its unassimilable and fast-growing Muslim population, and why its culture of Multiculturalism Uber Alles left it virtually defenseless against Islamic militancy. This murder in Amsterdam is a much bigger deal than it will seem this week in America, given that we are focused on the election. For one thing, murders just don't happen in northern Europe like they do here, so any killing is a big deal. But this is another high-profile political assassination, the second one in two years, and the second one related to the target's critical views on Islam. You may have noticed that Frits Bolkestein, a high-profile EU politician and formerly a Dutch parliamentarian, caused a huge row in September with a speech in which he stated his opposition to Turkey's joining the EU, and cited Bernard Lewis's observation that by the end of this century, demographics will have turned Europe into a Muslim-majority continent. What does that mean for Europe, particularly when very many of its Muslims are not assimilating, and when fundamentalist Islam is on the rise? Anyway, this morning I was thinking about this murder in Amsterdam, and feeling very happy that I had voted for George W. Bush, who, for all his flaws, really does understand the nature of the war we're in.
Posted at 06:18 PM
FROM THE TOP [Kate O'Beirne]
A senior GOP strategist dismisses the exit polls out of hand. "I'm old-fashioned. We're going to have wait till votes are counted." Today's polls have Dems with a mere 1% party i.d. advantage - in 2000 the exit polls gave Dems a 4% advantage. He recalls that Elizabeth Dole was down 6 pts. in exit polling and won her race by 9 pts. The same polls with screwy head to head numbers are showing Bush with 40% of the Hispanic vote - up 5 over 2000.
Posted at 06:16 PM
FOLKS IN LITTLE HAVANA [KJL]
"We're within .1 in FL and are looking forward to an extra hour in the panhandle. "GET OUT AND VOTE.
Posted at 06:13 PM
Mike Ledeen says to me: "concentrate on mixing the perfect manhattan..." I don't even know what's in a Manhattan. Any bartenders wanna come on over to NR Headquarters with their stash?
Posted at 06:10 PM
GETTING OUT THE DERB VOTE [John Derbyshire]
Got up. Breakfast. Went to dentist 8 am (X-rays, cleaning). Voted. Went home. Did some home improvement. Urged Rosie to go vote. She did (thereby cancelling out mine.) Checked FNC -- nothing much happening, some talking heads still making their points, as if it matters now. Did e-mail, checked Corner. Read some Penrose. Had lunch. Went to see kids' teachers. Heard things I already knew: Son smart but lazy, daughter life of party. Came home. Got mail -- magazine bonanza: Spectator, Mathematical Intelligencer, New Yorker, TNR, The New Criterion. Sat & browsed magazines, drinking tea. Checked Corner, FNC. Nothing really known. Back to attic for more home improvements. Practiced calm resignation.
Posted at 06:09 PM
GREAT ELECTION-NIGHT QUOTES [Rick Brookhiser]
Thomas Dewey, 1948 (attributed): I don't know if I'm alive or dead. If I'm alive, why do I feel this way? If I'm dead, why do I have to go to the bathroom?
Posted at 06:05 PM
This is not an act of desperation either. Was compiled BEFORE exits, thank you.
Posted at 05:59 PM
FROM A GOOD ALASKA SOURCE [KJL]
"The tires on all of our cars with lisa murkowski bumper stickers were slashed last night."
Posted at 05:57 PM
RE:; EXITS [Jim Robbins]
Kat, who is panicky? The exit polls reflect the dynamic that Republicans usually do better later in the day. The drift is in the right direction. Compare the early and late numbers:
PA Kerry +2-4 was +20 earlier
OH Kerry +1 -- was +4
MI Kerry +2 -- was +4
FL Kerry +1 -- was +3
NH Kerry +4 -- was +16
Hope this trend continues...
Posted at 05:56 PM
THIS IS WHAT MATTERS [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
This, by way of he who is, in my humble opinion, one of the smartest polling minds around (I won't tell you who that is so no polling mind is offended): Nothing is real. I repeat, Nothing is real until the precincts start coming in. So the results are not real until much later. This smart person is not at all paniced, because what matters, isn't here yet.
Posted at 05:44 PM
RE: PERSPECTIVE [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Always too grim? Well, it seems as though more of our readers are panicking about these useless alleged exit-poll numbers than we are. As for excess negativity in general: We were right about the political impact of the president's State of the Union address this year and the debates--if anything, we were too upbeat. And we were right to judge the president's convention speech a success, as we also did in 2000.
Posted at 05:41 PM
Keep in mind that this is similar to the real-time critiques of Bush's speeches that you guys do. "I didn't like that sentence." "He just stumbled over his words." "Oops, he should have mentioned abortion here." etc. You folks at NRO are alway to grim. Can't you wait just a little bit before you draw conclusions?
Posted at 05:30 PM
MOOD [Shannen Coffin]
Just got off the phone with a source connected to the White House. Political operations there is very confident and completely dismissive of the early day numbers, citing the skewing of the sample that has been discussed here. Confident that Bush will win OH and FL, that he will roll in WVa (ten points?) and that Mel Martinez will carry Florida. Not someone who is given to bluster.
Posted at 05:29 PM
NUMBERS WE'RE SEEING [KJL]
WARNING: I'M REPORTING WHAT WE ARE SEEING. IT DOES NOT MAKE IT THE FINAL RESULTS. ONLY THE VOTERS DO THAT. (And excuse cap letters, but everytime I warn, half the readers tell me I should have warned and the other half say I am pathetically desperate.
Posted at 05:28 PM
RE: EXIT POLLS [Mark Steyn]
Have a look at the Corner archives for Election Day 2002:
"Big turnout in New Hampshire—not a good sign... Early down arrows for Dole... Talent losing in MO... Townsend (arrgh!) looking good in MD..."
And that's just Rich.
The key word in the phrase "exit poll" is "poll": that's all it is.
I'm more concerned about those hard numbers from Dixville Notch: Bush 19 votes, Kerry 7. In 2000, it was Bush 21, Gore 5. If the Democrats maintain that 40% vote increase nationally, Texas is in play.
Posted at 05:22 PM
KEEP IN MIND [KJL]
I'm hearing not-encouraging things re 4 p.m. poll numbers. I gotta stress (and not because I am graping at straws, because it is true): these do not include absentee and early voters. Sopmething to bear in mind.
Posted at 05:21 PM
MATALIN'S RIGHT [Ramesh Ponnuru]
I was at CNN hq on election night 2000. Early in the night, when it looked like Fla. was going for Gore, Matalin said she didn't believe it. One of the reporters I was with said something about her being a "good trooper." I called Ed Gillespie and asked if they could win without Florida, and he said he thought they were going to win with it. They were right.
Posted at 05:15 PM
MORE BC INSIDERY THOUGHTS [KJL]
"[T]he race isn’t going to be the kind of victory any of us hoped for; but equanimity is a good trait to have at times like this. Things looked worse four years ago, at this point. Look, I expect it’ll be close; and no one here can assure a win by any means. But the internals matter, and as best as I can find out, in an honest assessment of the facts, they are looking pretty good to us. Better than the early exit polls have led people to believe."
I'm giving you what I believe is the honest to goodness truth about what the people seeing the most reliable information, such that it is, are thinking
Posted at 05:11 PM
FROM MARY MATALIN [KJL]
I said to her, "The blogosphere is going batty." Her quick response, "Batty? Lord have mercy. One exit; bad model. Look to history. Early exits are never right. also read Mellman in the Hill today. The bloggers need to do some lamaze, open a bottle of good red, get ready to party."
Posted at 05:08 PM
KEDWARDS SPIN? [Cliff May]
That’s what Jay Cost is now thinking these exit polls may be.
Posted at 05:06 PM
EXITS [Mark R. Levin]
I think -- win, lose or draw -- we're seeing another media debacle on this election. If these exit polls are any indication
Posted at 05:06 PM
LISTEN UP [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Again, go out and vote and get people to voete It's only 5 pm.
This is what straight GOP shooter tells me, best conversation, int erms of informed frankness I've had all day. Everything is in play, and even leaning good for the GOP in Senate races. But it's all contingent on the people who are supposed to show up showing up. I hear things look good in Alaska Senate race. GOP is alive in Colorado Senate. Hear Mel Martinez is a little behind in Florida, but all preelection internals suggested he was ahead, so, again, people who are at work, go vote on eht way home. GOP source happy about how NC, Ga. Ok, Alasaka are looking. Again. Can all change, depending on who votes in the coming hours, so get there. But the sky is not falling.
The bad news: Things are lookiung good for Arlen Specter. (Sorry Senator Rick, had to say!)
Posted at 05:05 PM
WWW.POINTOFLAW.COM [Ramesh Ponnuru]
will be live-blogging on the various initiatives around the country trying to rein in the rule of lawyers.
Posted at 04:53 PM
has some early polls, less distressing.
Posted at 04:51 PM
POLLSTER SPEAKS [KJL]
David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, e-mails:
At Strategic Vision, we have been reviewing and conducting exit polls and do not know where the media reports came from. We are showing a slight advantage for Bush in Florida by 1 point.
Posted at 04:49 PM
DASCHLE LAWYER [KJL]
gets kicked out of a polling place. This is just the beginning yet of Daschle's bad day, I suspect.
Posted at 04:43 PM
FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH... [Jonah Goldberg]
I was sufficiently motivated by the exit polls to vote just now. One more in the "W" column!
Posted at 04:39 PM
THIS DRAMA [KJL]
This e-mail from a GOP insider is worth reading and passing on:
There are media reports that we are behind in early exit polls. Here’s my sense of things. The early exit poll numbers are hard to make sense of right now, until we dissect and analyze them, which is being done even now. It’s of course still early, and it depends on where in the state the numbers are coming from. Much more importantly, our data also suggests what Drudge is reporting: the early samples are heavily weighted toward women (58 percent), which would of course give an artificial advantage to Senator Kerry. That imbalance will not hold up. Indeed, among men we are winning 53-45. To put it another way: if we’d one down in states with a sample that is heavily female, we’re in good shape with the overall population. To put it a third way: it looks like the first exit polls are a reflection of the composition of the electorate, not how the president is performing. Once those return to norm, the President should gain several points (2-3 pts) and Senator Kerry should lose several points (2-3 pts), giving the President the lead in a number of states.
Posted at 04:38 PM
AL GORE VOTES FOR W. [KJL]
While returning to work from my second trip to the polls (had to bug out earlier this morning, as the line at 6:15 was long enough to keep me from making it to work by 7:00), I spotted a Honda Insight (the 66 MPG gas/electric hybrid car) sporting a W’ 04 sticker. If Kerry can’t win over the hybrid car driving demographic, he’s finished!
Posted at 04:36 PM
WEIGHTED 59-41 WOMEN [KJL]
In all seriousness....make one wonder about the people doing the polling....
Posted at 04:32 PM
A READER FROM NJ [KJL]
KJL My 6 year old son is a political junkie -- his friend is the 2nd cousin of W, and he sleeps with a photo of The President and Mrs. Bush on his headboard.
Posted at 04:24 PM
FROM A GOP POLLSTER [KJL]
we've been getting some exits from various media outlets and some are contradictory, suggesting these guys are weighting them like crazy, etc.
Posted at 04:23 PM
EXITS AND ALL [Michael Ledeen]
Jonah: relax. the messenger always gets shot first, and you knew that.
of course you should report "real" numbers (even those with a forty percent margin for error), altho i can live without rumors, frankly. and leave wonkette to the cable networks, ok?
it still seems to me that MARK mellman's concession speech is the biggest news of the day. can someone explain that? is he planning to switch parties or what?
Posted at 04:22 PM
Blogs Nudge Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 Lower
Posted at 04:16 PM
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REPORT [John J. Miller]
An insider with Bush's Colorado campaign: "We expect to win by 5 or 6 points. Coors will trail and will have a long night but victory is definitely still possible."
Posted at 04:15 PM
EXIT POLLS [Rich Lowry]
For the record: I don't believe them.
Posted at 04:15 PM
OUCH! [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
Ah you miss the real impact of Cliff's post re who got approached for exit polls...it showed that attractive woman are not republicans...:)
Posted at 04:14 PM
I DON'T KNOW ABOUT THE REST OF YOU [Ramesh Ponnuru]
but I'm going to take a break to read the New Criterion, which just came in the mail.
Posted at 04:13 PM
NINE LIVES [John J. Miller]
Colorado's Amendment 36 -- the one that would split the electoral college -- appears to be losing heavily.
Posted at 04:12 PM
BUSH WINS! [John J. Miller]
In the student election held at my kids' Catholic school.
Posted at 04:00 PM
"GOTV" = Get Out the Vote.
Posted at 03:59 PM
I'M SO ASHAMED [Cliff May]
…for that display of unmitigated and unjustifiable sexism.
Chalk it up to Election Day jitters.
Is the sun over the yardarm yet? Somewhere? Cape Verde?
Posted at 03:58 PM
O-HI-O [Rick Brookhiser]
Don't forget the folk song:
I asked my love to take a walk,
To take a walk, just a little walk,
Down beside where the waters flow,
Down on the banks of the O-Hi-O.
He ends up murdering her.
Posted at 03:57 PM
MAKING ITS WAY AROUND VETERAN'S NETWORKS [John Hillen]
Posted at 03:56 PM
THOSE BOGUS NUMBERS [Jonah Goldberg]
Okay. I've now got a third source. Here's what I feel comfortable saying. Those numbers with Kerry leading by 20 in PA were definitely from the Kerry campaign. Whether the represented an early voting tally or just a totally non-serious collection of tallies from various dudes with clipboards is unclear. But they are entirely bogus for the purposes of understanding what's going on today.
As for what is going on today. Florida seems to be looking ok but tight. Still too close to call in Ohio. Etc. When I have something more concrete, I'll let ya know.
Posted at 03:55 PM
EXITS [Shannen Coffin]
OK, now that the storm of emails has temporarily subsided, a couple of points. First, Drudge is reporting a skewed sample in the early exit polls. Second, IT DOESN'T MATTER since they are exit polls. Remember that the polling service royally botched Florida in 2000 and was disbanded as a result (at least that's my recollection)? There's no reason to think this is any better. There is no cause for panic and no reason to stay home today. Go vote, and you can rest assured that you've done your duty. Call a friend who you think might be avoiding the lines and tell them to get off their duff! And I appreciate the sentiment that the Corner shouldn't be posting exit poll information at all. But take it all with a grain of salt (not the kind that was thrown around the Mount Laurel voting places, however), and we'll survive this day together.
Posted at 03:55 PM
AND, TONY FROM MAINE WRITES... [KJL]
You were wrong to post that "don't get mad don't get depressed" message. You practically were conceding defeat. The amount of morale damage you did with the Republican forces across the country is immeasurable. You expect to post something like "Bush is losing in all of the battleground states, but hey, keep the faith! GOTV!". Bulls**t, it doesn't work that way. As soon as your post went up, a few people just in the corner of the building where I work came over, one person almost in tears. You should be very proud of yourself. Why don't you just shut the hell up for the rest of the day. There has been enough damage done already. And tell Jonah to shut up too - I don't need to see the stupid "I come back from lunch" post either.OY. I'm waiting for reports that people killed their cats based on Corner posts.
Posted at 03:51 PM
YES! [Jonah Goldberg]
At least two voters have written me in for DC Representative! Do I sense a groundswell!
Posted at 03:50 PM
CLIFF IS EVIL TOO [KJL]
Now you've given all the women who weren't approached by pollsters a complex. Good work.
Posted at 03:49 PM
RE: DRUDGE [Cliff May]
Jonah, you ask “why on earth” the exit pollsters are approaching more women than men. My guess: Because more men then women are working as exit pollsters.
Like if you had that job, you’d really pass up the pretty girls to go ask the men to fill out your silly little forms.
Posted at 03:48 PM
HORSERACE SAYS NAY [KJL]
….to exit polls.
Ignore them says Jay Cost. And he explains why.
Posted at 03:44 PM
A POLL THAT MATTERS MORE... [Jonah Goldberg]
The stock market tanked the moment those kerry favorable exits came out.
Posted at 03:43 PM
FREE DRINKS FOR THE CORNER [KJL]
KJL: As a politcal junkie and NRO/Corner crack-head, I'd like to contribute to the GOTV effort in beautiful Upstate N.Y. As coincidence has it, I'm tending bar tonight, and I'll buy the first drink for 20 Corner readers who vote and come in after 6:00pm (that's when I start).
Posted at 03:43 PM
NOT TO BE INDELICATE... [Jonah Goldberg]
but some of you angrier readers can kiss my Michael Moore if you know what I mean.
I know everyone's edgy. I know this is a tense time. The election's a big deal, blah, blah, blah. But none of it justifies some of the idiotic and nasty nonsense (a tiny minority of) you folks are hurling at me and/or us.
A few points directed solely at those people who need to hear it:
1. The exit numbers I posted were posted in order for me to debunk them. The Wonkette numbers are false. Or they are at least not exit poll numbers from today. It is possible, from what two sources tell me, that they are tallies of the early voting -- conducted by the Democrats. That's plausible.
2. On the posting of exit polls in general (an issue which NRO has been central to for five years), we do not have a monopoly over their publication. It's not like if we choose not to do it, that a dozen other sites won't go right ahead and do it anyway.
3. I have never been convinced that learning your guy is losing in a very tight race translates into lower turnout. It's entirely possible and in my mind probable that it gins up the base to redouble its efforts. Moreover, the entire universe is not reading NRO and deciding to judge based upon our reports on exit polls.
I am making these points in order to rebut the deluge of angry, pissy emails I'm getting from people who make it sound like we're collaborating with the Nazis when we're simply doing our job. My apologies for wasting everyone else's time.
Posted at 03:39 PM
DRUDGE SENATE #S [KJL]
Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4...
Posted at 03:37 PM
AND DRUDGE ALSO HAS [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Bunning up 6, but I haven't ever really thought of that race as a real one.
Posted at 03:36 PM
A HIGH-LEVEL BUSH CAMPAIGN AIDE [Ramesh Ponnuru]
is pouring cold water on the Drudge "exit-poll" numbers. Points out that the first round of exit polls in 2000 had Bush tied in Colorado when he ended up winning by 9 points. The numbers appear to be unrepresentative samples, also, with a disproportionate number of women. Aide says he feels "pretty good" about OH and FL, Wisconsin is "close," and Iowa "very good." (Drudge, btw, has some Senate numbers up now, showing Thune, Coburn, and Demint up for the Rs, and Castor and Salazar for the Ds.)
Posted at 03:36 PM
BEARS REPEATING [Cliff May]
The Mystery Pollster explains what exit polls are and why they need to be taken with “a giant grain of salt” (not to mention a double shot of scotch or bourbon -- and branch water, naturally).
Posted at 03:35 PM
IRAN [Rachel Friedman]
Is this a forecast of what we’ll be in for during a Kerry presidency? A headline in today’s Chicago Sun-Times reads: “U.N. Nuclear Chief Scolds Iran, N. Korea.” Well, that’s a start. The AP article continues, “In his annual report to the U.N. General Assembly, Mohamed ElBaradei said Iran should suspend its uranium enrichment program ‘as a confidence building measure’ and North Korea should dismantle its nuclear weapons program or at least allow inspections to ensure it is ‘exclusively peaceful.’” Problem is, Teheran has repeatedly expressed its unwillingness to give up its “right” to the fuel cycle; and as we know, even if both countries decided tomorrow to declare a halt to their nuclear activities and open themselves up to closer inspections, it wouldn’t be terribly hard for them to carry on clandestinely. Bush gets this, and gets that it will take a lot more than a few scolding words to tackle the problem. Kerry, on the other hand, has proposed giving the Iranians low-enriched uranium as a test of their intentions, and wants a Security Council referral only after more IAEA inspections. The Bush team wants a referral right away. In other words, if Bush wins, we’ll see not only a lot more scolding words, but probably a lot more actions to back them up. If Kerry wins, well, who knows? Maybe we’ll all finally learn for sure that Iran and North Korea aren’t merely looking to meet their domestic energy needs.
Posted at 03:34 PM
OHIO [John J. Miller]
Another report from a guy on the ground: "Dem operatives are calling the Republican voting lists and (falsely) informing them that their precinct location has changed. They then give bogus information to the R voter."
Posted at 03:34 PM
BLAME K-LO [KJL]
One of our writers tells me: "You're so evil, if you believe some of my emails. You are singlehandedly responsible for ruining this election for everyone." GOTV so I don't get kicked out of the country. (I can only imagine the TAPPED/AS response to that.)
Posted at 03:33 PM
GO OUT AND RALLY W. TROOPS [KJL]
I hope you guys can begin to correct the misimpression produced by these “early” numbers, which turned out to be a 59% female sample. I can tell you anecdotally that the hubbub about them has been hurting morale on our side. People need to go out and vote, and know that things are close and every vote absolutely matters. We will win if they vote!Early exits=lame. Lame in terms of reliablility. And lame in terms, for our side, of what they are saying. So nix them and move on. Call your friends and family. Make sure people are making time to vote. If you think this election matters, help get it right.
Posted at 03:31 PM
DRUDGE [Jonah Goldberg]
Says that the early exits were based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio. If that's true, why on earth did they do it that way? But it would be good news if that's the case.
Posted at 03:24 PM
Brit Hume said on FNC a little ago that exits are looking good for Kerry but quickly warned how unreliable exits are
Posted at 03:24 PM
EXIT POLLS [Mark Steyn]
C'mon, you guys. 57-41 in New Hampshire? I'll buy you and Jonah a Connecticut River lake apiece if that pans out.
As for 60-40 in PA, much as I respect the ruthlessness of the Rendell machine, that's as credible as Saddam's last Presidential victory.
Also: re O-Hi-O. Elmer and Bugs are great but don't forget that marvelous song in Wonderful Town:
Why-oh-why-oh-why-oh Why did I ever leave Ohio?
Posted at 03:23 PM
EXITS [Shannen Coffin]
Look, folks, these are still "polls," not actual numbers. The only number that matters is the number that is certified by the Secretary of State. You still need to vote. And don't get onto KLo for posting information she receives, even if it turns out to be bad. You'd be more upset if the Corner went dark, wouldn't you? Exit poll numbers are notoriously unreliable, and many a network got skewered for relying on them in 2000. Let's just wait and see. And keep the faith.
Posted at 03:16 PM
I WAS RIGHT. [Jonah Goldberg]
I'm being told that those Wonkette numbers are absolutely, positively not exit poll numbers. They might be results of early voting "exit" polls (i.e. votes cast over the last two weeks), but they do not track at all the exits for votes cast today. That said, I'm told the exits don't look great for Bush either. Of course, that changes none of the caveats about exit polls already posted below.
Posted at 03:15 PM
WORD ON THE STREET... [Jonah Goldberg]
Things looking good for Thune. Plus four.
Posted at 03:06 PM
FOX [Rich Lowry]
FYI--shceduled to be on around 3:20. Then will be on tonight on Fox Braodcast--you know, Bart and Lisa Fox--on and off from 7pm on.
Posted at 03:05 PM
I DON'T BUY 'EM [Jonah Goldberg]
Several people have sent me these exit numbers (which, I now see, are also posted at Wonkette):
K - B
They're interesting, but wildly implausible. PA is not a 60-40 race. Indeed, were these numbers real -- or I should say reliable -- it's entirely possible that they're good news for Bush. If they were collected uniformly the same way. Why? Because any tally that comes up with a 60-40 race for Kerry in PA right now has to be filtering in some pro-Kerry way that would have to be equalized by the time the final tally is reached. If that filter had Bush losing in PA by 20 points and MN by 18, presumably the equalization of the numbers would push the close calls in Fla, IA and Ohio into Bush's column. Then again, I sincerely doubt that any of that scenario is at work here. I simply don't buy these numbers. That doesn't mean that Bush may not be losing right now or that the Kerry people are unwarrented in their alleged happiness right now. But if all the hullabaloo is being driven by these numbers in particular, I would definitely take a wait-and-see attitude. I would also vote, then wait-and-see.
Posted at 02:59 PM
AN HISTORIC ACHIEVEMENT [Cliff May]
It’s 3 PM on November 2, 2004. There has not been a terrorist attack on American soil since 9/11/01.
If Osama bin Laden could have attacked us over the past three years, he would have.
If OBL could attack us today, he would.
Whoever is responsible for keeping the barbarians outside the gates deserves praise – and re-election.
Posted at 02:53 PM
WHAT I KEEP HEARING [KJL]
is basically what Drudge has up.
Latest I have seen: Bush down everywhere. -1 ini FL, -4 Ohio. Losing PA big. Losing Wi by 5. IA down 1. Don't have Mich. Down big in NH. Down small in NM. But sample is heavy female and first wave is always flaky.
Posted at 02:49 PM
FROM AN ANNONYMOUS GOP OPERATIVE [KJL]
We are hitting our vote goals in FL and will win here. OH turnout seems to be lower than expected due to rain.
Posted at 02:49 PM
THE ANGER ROLLS IN [KJL]
An e-mail: "Stop posting exit poll data. I am suppose to go vote after work but after reading The Corner, what's the point???? Youre so selfish KLo. You want to be the center of attention and to hell with people who haven't voted. Tell Jonah to shut the hell up also. Don't you people have real jobs?"
Um, real or not, this is our job.
Posted at 02:47 PM
A PREDICTION [John J. Miller]
I saw Ed Feulner, president of the Heritage Foundation, this morning and asked him who would win today: "The good guys!" he said.
Posted at 02:46 PM
ANOTHER EXIT REMINDER [KJL]
Bush Cheneyers reminding: First wave of exit polls are not reliable--they are raw numbers, not balanced. They don't include absentee and early votes. Example: First round of exit polling in '02 CO Senate race showed Strickland up ten percentage points over Allard.
Posted at 02:46 PM
SECONDHAND INFO [Ramesh Ponnuru]
The Republican who gave it to me is a congenital pessimist and has been calling around "looking for bad news"--and not finding it.
Posted at 02:46 PM
Andrew Sullivan tells me to "chill," says "The American people are speaking. Even if you might not like what they have to say."
Look, if Kerry wins, we'll deal if that unfortunate time comes (though, I'll remind you we're nowhere near that point--hours left in voting). But early exit polls are not the American people speaking.
Posted at 02:45 PM
ABOUT EXIT POLLS [John J. Miller]
This is my fourth election in which these exits polls have trickled into an office where I'm working -- and not once have they held up in their entirety. At mid-day, they may in fact point to a few trendlines, but we don't know what they are until later because they also include some red herrings. An example: I remember in 1992 being told that Clinton was edging Bush in Virginia in the middle of the afternoon. This was of interest because several of my colleagues were Virginia voters. The final result was Bush 45 percent, Clinton 41 percent.
Posted at 02:44 PM
BUSH MAKES CALLS [KJL]
Posted at 02:42 PM
SECONDHAND INFO [Ramesh Ponnuru]
I'm told that pollsters close to the Bush campaign think that Bush is up in Florida and New Hampshire, down in Wisconsin, even in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and "doing well" in Ohio. And they don't think that the exit-poll numbers on NRO about Ohio add up. Fwiw.
Posted at 02:37 PM
MORE OHIO [John J. Miller]
"Absentee ballot issues continue. Stark [County] Board of Elections allows those who got an absentee ballot but claim they haven't sent it to vote regularly. Apparently there are two absentee voter lists - those that were sent absentee ballots, and those that have voted absentee. The BoEs claim that their record-keeping will prevent any double-voting. I am not convinced. ... Summit County, Ward K, Precinct 3, Witness: xx. Several instances of absentee voters showing up and voting regularly. Throughout Stark County this is happening. ... There are several success stories. For every five incident reports, we get a call about provisional ballots being provided when they should be or aggressive electioneering being stopped."
Posted at 02:36 PM
CRIMINEY! [Jonah Goldberg]
I went out for a brief lunch with missus and I come back to discover things are going south? What the...? From what I'm hearing, Florida's an uphill climb right now and New Hampshire's a lost cause. Trying to nail things down.
Posted at 02:34 PM
I'm told you can help make phone calls for Tom Coburn nationwide by emailing email@example.com ...
Posted at 02:34 PM
RUMOR [NRO Staff]
bush down 4 in ohio, down 4 in fla, downm 1 in NM, down 1 in mich, down 2 iowa
As Kathryn said, these early reports are unreliable, but these are numbers we just got from a major newsroom. Take with a grain of salt.
Posted at 02:33 PM
SMART THOUGHTS RE: EXITS [KJL]
Posted at 02:27 PM
WHAT MISSED OPPORTUNITY? [Ramesh Ponnuru]
E. J. Dionne Jr. and David Brooks argue that Bush squandered an opportunity to remake American politics. Brooks claims that "Bush didn't build the governing majority that was there for the taking." Dionne says that Bush opted for partisanship rather than building on our post-9/11 national unity.
I don't really buy any of this. Brooks's one example of something Bush could have done is to try a new, "flexible, market-based system that would have cleaned the environment better than the current system." Now maybe Bush should have done more on this front. But the idea that this step would have contributed in a significant way to a "governing majority" is unserious.
As for Dionne: The sense of national unity we all felt right after the attacks was bound to go away, and blaming Bush for its dissipation is foolish. Americans had different views of how to respond to the attacks, rooted in different philosophies and instincts. Bush was going to alienate either his base or the Democrats. Finally, the idea that Bush was markedly more partisan than the Democrats in 2002 is itself a product of Democratic partisanship. The Democrats' maneuvering that year over the Iraq war--demanding a vote, then complaining about having to vote before the election, then mostly voting for a war they didn't really support--didn't exactly put the national ahead of the partisan interest.
Posted at 02:16 PM
FLORIDA EXITS [KJL]
Hearing Kerry one ahead, from multiple (media and political) sources
Posted at 02:12 PM
Do not, again, do not take any exit poll resports too seriously. JUST GET OUT THE VOTE. Exit polls not always reliable, ESPECIALLY early ones. AND, this isn't over until the polls close. So please get to work while there is still time.
DO NOT get depressed. DO NOT get mad. JUST GET OUT THE VOTE.
I contend this is the most important election of many of our lifetimes. I'm almost willing to make a deal and give the Dems 2008 if we can have this one.
Posted at 02:10 PM
OHIO UPDATE [John J. Miller]
From a Republican source in the thick of things: "The aggressive electioneering is so bad that we're only reporting the worst of it. We just need to get the 527s out of the buildings--forget about whether they're within 100 feet of the buildings." This source also has a report of a Democrat or 527-type walking into a polling place with an Alzheimer's patient and issuing orders on how to vote. Finally: "The lines are full but they're not ridiculous."
Posted at 02:09 PM
COLORADO REPORT [John J. Miller]
"In response to widespread reports throughout Colorado alleging improper activities by MoveOn.Org, attorneys for the Colorado Republican Party have asked the Secretary of State’s Office to issue a statewide emergency HAVA ALERT. If issued, the Alert will direct all 64 County Elections Officers to enforce the law that prohibits the very sort of aggressive electioneering that MoveOn operatives and their attorneys are conducting within the 100-foot boundary round polling locations."
Posted at 02:05 PM
DAKOTA DISAPPOINTMENT [John J. Miller]
Peter: Happy to hear about Hoeven. When I think about North Dakota this year, though, I think of a lost opportunity: Democratic senator Byron Dorgan should have been beatable, with the right candidate. And several potential candidates were available, including former governor Schaeffer. But none of them entered the race, and the last poll I saw had Dorgan being re-elected with 71 percent. In a year with Bush on the top of the ticket, he should have had a Thune-style challenger. Maybe Hoeven for Senate in 2010?
Posted at 02:03 PM
Kerry +4 in Ohio, I'm hearing from good multiple sources. I'd nix the earlier report. (BY BETTER I MEAN MORE RELIABLE EXIT REPORT, MEANING I HAVE GOTTEN FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES.)
MESSAGE: GET OUT THE W VOTE IN OHIO.
Posted at 01:50 PM
UPDATE [Jim Robbins]
Bush. Ohio futures shares now up almost 10%. Volume in Bush shares trading at 8 times Kerry shares. Bush up 9%, Kerry down 8% showing a slow decline all day.
Posted at 01:45 PM
ONE VICTORY ALREADY CERTAIN! [Peter Robinson]
Oh, all right. I’ll confess. The victory is already certain because nobody ever doubted it: Today John Hoeven will be elected to a second term as the Republican governor of North Dakota just as surely as Barak Obama will be elected Democratic senator from Illinois. Why does a Californian care who wins in North Dakota? Oh, all right. I’ll confess once again. John was a classmate of mine at Dartmouth. He’s well-spoken, fundamentally conservative (in North Dakota politics, you have to look after the farmers in a way that might not entirely please, let us say, Milton Friedman), and one of the nicest guys I’ve ever known. Why should you care? Because North Dakota’s senators are liberal Democrats, and John’s re-election places him in a good position to wait a few years, then knock one of them off.
John Hoeven, re-elected governor of North Dakota. His victory will be completely overlooked tonight, of course, so take a moment to celebrate right now.
Posted at 01:44 PM
DEMS FOR BUSH [KJL]
Passed along from a reader:
Voted mid-morning in heavily Democratic Montgomery County, Maryland. Long lines; took about an hour. Afterwards I met a woman outside carrying a placard, "Democrat for Bush." Her reasoning surprised me. She has two sons, ages 18 and 19, and gave up on Kerry because of his pledge to increase our armed forces by 40,000 soldiers or so. She seemed convinced that the greater chance of her sons being drafted lay with a Kerry Presidency. When I said I was surprised to find a Democrat for Bush here in Maryland, she mentioned that her brother-in-law, who is from Iran, and very liberal, is also voting for Bush out of consideration for his relatives back in Iran.
Posted at 01:37 PM
Bush leads ohio 49 to 41, we hear. (Note: first round not reliable)
Posted at 01:33 PM
JOHN FUND'S ELECTION GUIDE [John J. Miller]
Worth reading here.
Posted at 01:24 PM
BUSH TAKES GUAM [Jim Robbins]
Posted at 01:24 PM
This taped call noted: "Hello. This is President George Bush. You know, Barbara's husband..."
Posted at 01:22 PM
SO MANY PEOPLE [KJL]
have asked me this: "How is there not a NRO party in D.C. tonight? That is a missed opportunity for a drunken right-wing extravaganza."
Answer: We have to work!!!!!! I've been amused at the high volume of 2 am e-mails: WHY ARE YOU NOT POSTING NOW? YOU GET PAID A LOT TO DO THIS. Sorry to say, a) people have actually been giving up family time and the like to post during weekend, nights, etc. Sorry there’ss not more, but I am grateful for the great volume and quality we have—we, of course, think it is worth it. a1. NR IS NOT ROLLING IN DOUGH, part 57. Believe me, you would know it if we were--like we wouldn’t bother you with fundraising drives and subscription plugs.
For any in doubt, be here or be square. We’ll be Cornering, Kerryspotting. Battlegroundering. (?!)Will be all over TV and radio (Fox (Rich), ABC radio (Geraghty), Hugh Hewitt (KLo), Michael Graham (various), BBC (Miller), Laura Ingraham (Byron), Vatican Radio(KLo) and more).
And, for the pizza guy: SEND SCOTCH TOO.
Posted at 01:21 PM
A GUN-RIGHTS GUIDE TO THE ELECTIONS [Ramesh Ponnuru]
David Kopel has put it together, and it should be helpful tonight. If anyone has a tort-reformers' or pro-lifers' version of the same thing, email me at firstname.lastname@example.org
Posted at 01:19 PM
THE SURPRISE INCUMBENT LOSS SCENARIO [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Several emails, most of them nominating (or arguing against) 1980 and 1888.
Here's one email: "The three incumbents to lose since 1936 - Ford, Carter and H.W. Bush - were seriously challenged from within their party in primaries, fighting to regain up to 33 points in late summer and behind through most of the fall (Carter the Gallup exception for the third circumstance). Each of them faced considerable problems with charisma or the appearance haplessness; for all his detractors, Bush is grudgingly accepted as irrepressible and earthy. Carter, Reagan and Clinton 'connected' with the American public. Kerry's inability to do so has probably won more headlines than anything else."
Another emailer points out that there are more examples of the reverse: "incumbent presidents everyone more or less thought would lose but didn't," like Harry Truman.
Posted at 01:12 PM
CRUMMY WEATHER [John J. Miller]
Since when do meteorologists get to play political pundits? This article quotes one who thinks rain will lower Ohio turnout by 2-4 points and Michigan and Pennsylvania turnout by 1 point. (Maybe those voting machines in Philadelphia were adjusted to offset the loss of voters.)
Posted at 01:09 PM
I UNDERSTAND HOW THIS GUY FEELS [KJL]
(though no one should EVER do something so rash as he considered): "I am a new NR subscriber, as of a few days ago, although I almost canceled my subscription after seeing Jonah Goldberg's comment yesterday about wishing the election campaign would go on. "
Posted at 12:59 PM
MORE ON TIRE SLASHING [KJL]
Posted at 12:58 PM
RE: MELLMAN [John Podhoretz]
Mark Mellman's piece in the Hill is one of the most extraordinary political documents I've ever read. All you need do is stitch together the quotes that suggest Kerry is heading to his doom:
"Win or lose, it is important to acknowledge the daunting challenge Sen. John Kerry faces."
" First, we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime."
"Democrats have spoken often and powerfully about the nation’s economic problems. But by historical standards, they are not that bad. The “misery index” is 7.8 today but was 20.5 when Jimmy Carter was defeated....The level of economic pain we are now feeling is not commensurate with voting an incumbent president out of office."
"On average, incumbents who have been defeated have only had a 38 percent job rating. Bush is 10 points higher than that."
" We often point to the fact that a majority of Americans say the country is seriously off on the wrong track. Fifty-two percent hold that view. But when Bush Sr. was defeated, 72 percent thought the country was seriously off on the wrong track.
"It has been an uphill fight."
Mellman wrote this on Sunday. It is all but impossible to believe that Kerry's own pollster didn't see numbers that depressed him deeply and caused him to draft an unprecedentedly negative report on his candidate's own prospects to be published on the morning of the election. Whatever qualifiers he has added on to suggest that he still expects Kerry to win are just that -- qualifiers, and utterly unconvincing ones.
Take from this what you will, but there's no question that inside the Kerry camp at least some people think their man has already lost.
Posted at 12:52 PM
GOP NY COMES OUT OF THE WOODWORK?? (I WISH) [KJL]
Another Rockland County NY e-mail: "I voted in Rockland County this morning, & in my 12 years of voting @ this same spot never saw it so crowded. Time will tell."
Posted at 12:51 PM
Rush reporting, and I just got a phone call about: Milwaukee: tires slashed on 30 GOP vans that were set to take people to the polls
Posted at 12:43 PM
LUNCHTIME, ELECTION DAY [Jonah Goldberg]
Kathryn -- I think this would be an excellent time to shut down the Corner for those much-needed repairs.
Posted at 12:42 PM
BUSH IS GOLD [Jonah Goldberg]
Does the gold market think Bush is going to take it? This guy thinks so.
Posted at 12:41 PM
EBERSTADT [Stanley Kurtz]
Early returns are in and the numbers are spectacular! Mary Eberstadt’s Home Alone America has moved from 20,796 to 604 in amazon’s sales rankings in just three hours. (For more on Home Alone America, see my post from this morning.) If Corner readers can do this for Home Alone America, I know they can put the president over the top.
Posted at 12:37 PM
FROM COLORADO [John J. Miller]
A well-placed source: "Going into Election Day, Republicans had a 76,000 voter advantage in early voting and absentees turned in. To mobilize the vote, there have been 6,000 volunteers on the streets who knocked on 550,000 doors. Republicans have poll watchers heavily deployed today. And the President looks to be headed to a 5 or 6 point win. Even if the unaffiliateds break for Ken Salazar, this is a great hand for Pete Coors to be holding going in. Will be tight, but if the GOTV works the way it did in 2002, and there's no indication that it won't, Pete should make it thru. AND, we had a great snowfall yesterday, so spread the word to conservatives to come ski and celebrate a big win! "
Posted at 12:37 PM
I HEAR [KJL]
Zogby has new numbers in a few:
CO--KERRY UP (phone), PA--TIED (phone), VA--TIED (online), FL--BUSH UP (phone)(Explanattion: Three-day rolling on the phones; the online is the final for their online polling)
Posted at 12:36 PM
DR. DEATH UPDATE [John J. Miller]
A pleasant thought on a nerve-wracking day: Jack Kevorkian remains behind bars, and the Supreme Court just made sure he's going to stay there until at least 2007.
Posted at 12:27 PM
THE COURTS [KJL]
Chief Justice William Rehnquist’s hospitalization this past week highlighted an issue that’s in the background of this presidential election, but one that will affect America’s future in dramatic ways. The chief justice is on the mend, but we are reminded of the inevitable: whoever wins will name the next Supreme Court justice—very likely more than one.
Some conservatives last week quickly jumped to bogeyman possibilities: Chief Justice Hillary Rodham Clinton under a President John F. Kerry! But one doesn’t need a Hillary Clinton to get judicial activism.
“A Kerry presidency would have dire consequences for the future of the Supreme Court and of our country,” warns a group of Catholic lawyers in a recently released open letter (which our Shannen Coffin had something to do with). Their cautions are couched in Catholic terms, aimed at Catholic voters, but their message is relevant not only to Catholics, but people of faith across the board, as well as any American who does not want Supreme Court justices legislating from the bench.
Andy McCarthy has more on judges on NRO today. Read it. And rally anyone who needs rallying.
Posted at 12:20 PM
MELLMAN [Jonah Goldberg ]
Here's his dour column (the one Cliff mentioned earlier).
Posted at 12:20 PM
CLINTON CAMPAIGNS [John J. Miller]
From a source in North Carolina: "Bill Clinton called into at least one urban radio station in NC today urging listeners to support Bowles. This is the first time Clinton has been used by the Bowles campaign (in either race). And by doing it on urban radio stations, it conveniently flies under the radar screen."
Posted at 12:18 PM
SENATE SCUTTLEBUTT [Jonah Goldberg]
An opposing view:
Posted at 12:15 PM
WHEN THE MAN COMES AROUND... [Jonah Goldberg]
Everyone here knows I've got my problems with Bush. And this thing takes some liberties. But goshdarn it, I'm just a sucker for this sort of thing. Turn up the volume and enjoy. Pretty much a must click (unless you're at the office and volume is a problem).
Posted at 12:13 PM
That's a very funny email. The lengths addicts will go...
Posted at 12:08 PM
BUY NRO PIZZA? [Jonah Goldberg]
Alas, I'm working from home but I like the idea nonetheless. From a reader:
Are NRO contributors working out of NR World HQ today? As I am depending on you guys not leaving your computers to post updates, we the readers could order food and send it to your HQ so you need not get up other than bathroom/sanity breaks. Just a thought, has to be a good pizza place near your HQ that readers could reach by phone with a credit card.
Posted at 12:07 PM
WATCHING THE MONEY GUYS [Jim Robbins]
Futures Market Intrade.com shows Bush elected up 5.6%, Bush to take Ohio up 7.9%, Bush to take 300+ electoral votes up 13.3%.
Posted at 12:05 PM
WATCHING W. WIN FROM SADDAM PALACE [KJL]
A nice way to ring in electoral victory:
Posted at 12:04 PM
I WANT... [Jonah Goldberg ]
The six seconds of my life that I wasted on this back (nod to Sam Rosenfeld at Tapped)
Posted at 12:04 PM
THAT'S THINKING! [KJL]
I voted earlier this morning in Falls Church, VA--an area with a VERY large Arab population. Outside the door of the polling place, where you have your Bush and Kerry campaigners giving it one last shot, the Republican Party rep was speaking to voters waiting in the long line--in Arabic (or Farsi). Not sure because I didn't understand it, but someone in the local Republican Party is thinking on his toes!
Posted at 12:02 PM
TONIGHT [Kate O'Beirne]
A friend's fantasy:
It's 9 pm on Nov. 2 and Brokaw and Russert are doing the wrap-up. "Tim," Tom asks, "how do you account for the extraordinary discrepancy between polls that showed a dead heat right up to the end and the decisive margin by which the President was re-elected tonight?"
Posted at 12:01 PM
DEAD PEOPLE VOTING [KJL]
Posted at 12:00 PM
that Mellman piece is an extraordinary concession. Is it unprecedented?
Posted at 11:54 AM
BUGS & FUDD [Jonah Goldberg ]
This is what I'm talking about.
Posted at 11:51 AM
LAW PROFS FOR KERRY [Jonathan H. Adler]
Professors at law schools in Ohio and Pennsylvaniam, including yours truly, have received unsolicited entreaties from "New York Lawyers for Kerry" to help with voter turnout efforts. What is interesting about the mailings is that they have been sent indiscriminately to the entire faculty list, presumably on the assumption that most law professors lean to the left. Alas, at nearly all law schools, that is a reasonable assumption to make.
Posted at 11:45 AM
MORE MOVEON SHENANIGANS [KJL]
Hearing reports throughout Colorado that moveon.org is sending infiltrators into republican phonebanks as volunteers in order to sabotage.
Posted at 11:44 AM
WHERE'S MY DONUT? [Jennifer Graham]
My yellow-dog-Democrat best friend reports that she almost --- ALMOST --- voted for Bush this morning... not because of his policies, but because of the smiling women passing out doughnuts, cranberry bread, juice and homemade cookies to voters standing in line at Mount Bethel United Methodist Church in Cobb County, Ga.
There was, I'm sorry to report, NO foodstuff distribution at the elementary school where I voted. And I can't think of any Krispy Kreme confection that would have swayed my vote for Kerry..... but Kerry voters, are -- by and large -- squishier than we are, so don't underestimate the value of a couple of Veggie Lovers pizzas tonight around 6:30 in your polling place....
Posted at 11:42 AM
VIVA BUSH! [KJL]
Was in Washington Heights (way uptown NYC) very early this morning. Spanish Kewrry Edwards signed blanketed the place. I was wishing I had some of those Viva Bush signs on hand.
Posted at 11:40 AM
FROM ROCKLAND CO. NY [KJL]
An e-mail: "Just came from my polling place in oh-so-blue downstate New York (Rockland County) an hour ago. The crowd: six poll workers, one poll watcher, and one solitary voter (me). Apathy reigns. Now I know how Hawaii has felt all these years."
Posted at 11:37 AM
WHAT'S FRENCH FOR "WISHFUL THINKING"? [Jonah Goldberg ]
From the Agence France Press [emphasis mine]:
Posted at 11:34 AM
RE: PHILLY [KJL]
FNC is reporting Kerry camp is dismissing Philly fraud reports. I know from BC that the GOP is filing suit to have machines impounded.
Posted at 11:34 AM
FROM IRAQ [KJL]
Talked to our friend Michael Rubin, who is back in Iraq, this morning. Asked him what people over there are saying about our Election Day. Here’s what he said:
Most Iraqis are pro-Bush, be they Arabs or Kurds. Liberating 22 million people is never a mistake. And, as bad as the insurgency may be, they are killing thousands of Iraqis and Bush is the one standing up to the insurgents.For more foreign opinion, which might surprise you, see Jonathan Foreman’s piece on the homepage, from India.
Posted at 11:32 AM
ODDSCHECKER [Jonah Goldberg ]
This site is only for people -- like Ramesh -- with a serious problem.
Posted at 11:29 AM
SENATE SCUTTLEBUTT [Jonah Goldberg]
Word in Republican circles is good as of early this morning according to their internal polling. This is to be taken with a five-pound bag of salt. Still, some Republican operative types are saying that not only will Daschle lose today, but so will Russ Feingold. That would obviously be good news for Bush. Coburn wins and so does Murkowski (I'm a bit dubious about that). Things are a bit cloudier and more pessimistic for Bunning.
Posted at 11:25 AM
O-HI-O [Jonah Goldberg]
I don't think of the CSN song about Kent State. Yes, I know it.
Posted at 11:21 AM
TO GIVE THE CARDINAL HIS DUE [Peter Robinson]
From a reader:
I attended Mass last week at a parish in Los Angeles and during the announcements the priest read a statement by Cardinal Mahoney urging Catholics to vote against Prop 71. Yesterday, at a different parish in LA, the parish bulleting had a copy of the Cardinal's letter in the bulletin.My suggestion? That the Cardinal ought to get a copy of that pastoral letter, scrawl "personal" and "urgent" across the top, then fax it to the governor's office in Sacramento.
Posted at 11:20 AM
RE: INCIDENT IN NJ [Shannen Coffin]
Update. The substance tested to be harmless, salt-based substance. But no sooner had the Mount Laurel authorities cleared the high school gym than the perpertrator(s) struck again at a separate polling place across town, shutting down (at least temporarily) another polling place. I'm not going to point fingers at who might be responsible for this, but whoever it is should be put away for a healthy length of time.
Posted at 11:19 AM
MOVE.ON AT THE POLLS [KJL]
I've heard this from several readers this morning and have Bush-Cheney confirmation. MoveOn.org has set up at polling places in several places. They have tables and claim to be doing exit polls. Legally, they can be within 100-300 feet (varies by state) but not any closer, and they are violating this in many states. County officials are working to move them and in some cases cops have been called to remove them. These problems have been reported in: IA, MI, MN, ME, CO, NH, WI.
Posted at 11:18 AM
REPORT FROM THE FIELD [John Hillen]
I just voted in the semi-bucolic DC exburb of Oakton Viginia and the turnout there is way above anyone’s recent memory. Nobody in the 75 minute-long line, including neighborhood denizens who’ve been there since the early 60’s could ever remember a turnout that big or more than a 10 minute wait. And my wait was the shortest of the day there so far.
Posted at 11:15 AM
RE: GOES [Larry Kudlow]
The Horse Race Blog, which I know you’re all watching, has similar numbers. He expects the margin to be 51.0 to 47.3 with Bush garnering 306-327 EVs while Kerry gets 211-232. Bush carries Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Kerry carries Michigan, New Hampshire, Hawaii, and New Jersey. Pennsylvania is too close to call. Jay Cost believes the partisan sample will more closely resemble 2002 than 2000. He also thinks GoTV will trump Democratic 527s in the ground game.
Posted at 11:08 AM
INCIDENT IN NEW JERSEY [Shannen W. Coffin]
Just got a call from my brother in law, the Deputy Town manager in Mount Laurel, New Jersey. Someone came into one of their two polling places (the high school gym) and dumped white powder all over the place. Voting shut down in that location -- although some are voting provisionally in another location in town. Hazmat teams and news crews on site. Probably a hoax, but serious business.
Posted at 11:01 AM
NBC STANDS FOR NEGATIVE BUSH COVERAGE [Jonah Goldberg]
From a reader at the University of Chicago:
Posted at 11:01 AM
A VOTE FOR W. SAVES YOU FROM SPEEDING TICKETS [KJL]
Today, our electrical intern, who is a Russian immigrant (moved here when she was 13) was driving 30 miles over the speed limit on 71 north from Cincinnati. She was speeding to get back to work because she had waited in line in her hometown for an hour (starting at 6:30 am) to vote. She was pulled over by the State Highway Patrol. Besides speeding, she also had an expired registration (she's a month late renewing it.) On top of all this, she couldn't locate her proof of insurance. She explained to him her plight of waiting in line to vote, and that she was rushing to get to work in Columbus. He took her driver's license, started to walk to his cruiser to process the ticket, and then turned back to ask who she voted for. She said "Bush". He turned around, handed her back the license, and said "I think this time I'll just give you a warning".
Posted at 11:00 AM
MEDIA FAVORED KERRY [Tim Graham]
Two polls released last week found that more people perceive the media tilting coverage in favor of Kerry than Bush. Gallup determined that 35 percent think coverage has tilted toward Kerry compared to just 16 percent who said it favored Bush. The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press discovered that "half of voters (50 percent) say most newspaper and TV reporters would prefer to see John Kerry win the election, compared with just 22 percent who think that most journalists are pulling for George Bush." More here.
Posted at 10:59 AM
VOTING IN VA. [KJL]
I voted in McLean VA this morning at 7:10 and was #187. People have been streaming in all morning (I know since I live across the street from the polling place). BUT you would hope that people who live in the close-in suburbs of DC - those who aren't diplomats! - could get off the couch and vote, so I am not sure how significant this is. For alot of these people, their jobs may be quite literally on the line!
Posted at 10:57 AM
51.2% TO 47.8% [Larry Kudlow]
That’s the call made by Ed Goeas, co-author of the blue-chip, bipartisan Battleground Poll. I spoke to Ed this morning, at 7 a.m. He is using an ultra-conservative, worst-case, 2000-like, partisan sample of 44.3% Democrats and 42.3% Republicans. He tells me Bush has bounced up in the past 48 hours on leadership and Iraq. Also, on the economy -- on keeping America prosperous, Bush has moved up from a 45% to 47% deficit to a 48% to 46% lead. This could be the response to the excellent GDP economic report published Friday and totally ignored by the political-pundit class. Investors may be responding positively to the pre-election stock market rally. Ed also believes that white, conservative, Christian Evangelicals could carry the day for Bush, where 83% look to be voting, giving a 69 percentage-point margin to Bush, and seven percentage points higher intensity support for Bush than labor unions have for Kerry. Goeas also weights Hispanic support for Bush at a conservative 35%, even though his “unaided” tally actually produces a 43% Hispanic vote for Bush. Goeas also believes he is underweighting black support for Bush and male support.
Posted at 10:53 AM
INCUMBENT RULES [Ramesh Ponnuru]
When is the last time a sitting president was rejected by the public without everyone knowing in advance that it would happen? In 1992, everyone knew Bush was going to lose. Were people surprised by Carter's 1980 loss? Ford had a late surge in 1976, but, again, everyone had to know he was going to lose. Right now, at least in the polls, most people seem to think Bush will win.
Also: When is the last time that a candidate held a decisive advantage on the issues that likely voters generally regarded as the most important ones, and still lost?
People can send me answers at email@example.com. Meanwhile, I'm off to vote.
Posted at 10:53 AM
BREAKING FOR BUSH IN OHIO [KJL]
Three Bush-Cheney types have pointed this out to me today: Seevral Ohio polls broke for Bush last night. Esp. Zog.
Posted at 10:49 AM
MATALIN SAYS... [KJL]
Mary Matalin says it “feels good.” She tells me: “with 2 1/2 hours til the first exits, only anecdotal evidence to chew over. Reports of great GOP turnout everywhere. Many Bush Cheney stickers at my own polling place in heavily democratic Old Town, Va. Everyone at headquarters psyched. Closing polls looked good. The MVP of this cycle will be the bloggers. So thanks to all and go forth and lead.”
Posted at 10:49 AM
THE PERFECT ELECTION DAY TIMEKILLER [Shannen Coffin]
I usually hate pop-up ads, but Orbitz's sports games usually are worth a few minutes diversion. And given the time on the clock to kill today, their Paper Football Challenge is perfect. Go Play!
Posted at 10:47 AM
VOTER SUPPRESSION IN O-HI-O [Jonah Goldberg ]
I'm sure Democrats will be scandalized.
Posted at 10:46 AM
PARTISAN POLLING PLACES [Jonathan H. Adler]
A friend who recently moved to southeastern Pennsylvania offers this morning report aobut his voting experience:
Historically, I have voted in northern Virginia (where I lived for 10 years). I was always impressed by the fairness of the process, even when I knew most of the poll workers favored one party (the Democrats in Arlington and Falls Church, where I lived). Recently, I moved to eastern Pennsylvania and registered to vote. What I found at my polling place this morning stunned me. My area of Montgomery County, PA is heavily Democratic, and Norristown is a Democratic stronghold. So I expected to be a little out of place, but this was ridiculous. My polling place was the Union Hall of Laborers Local 135 in Norristown, PA. Honestly, a union hall. All my voting life (the last 17 years) I have voted in public buildings: schools, community centers, fire halls. Never a place so partisan as a union hall. There were no signs denoting the hall as a voting place (unless you count the 80 or so signs on and around the hall for Kerry-Edwards and sundry other Democrats). But, the building was adorned with a large (8' x 8' est.) "Laborers for Kerry" banner. It was bright red (of course). A similar sign was inside on a glass window facing voters while they waited to vote. Councilman Darden (D-Montgomery County, not up for election) greeted voters at the door and introduced himself to just about everyone. He handed out helpful sample Democratic ballots to voters waiting in line. He wandered the halls of the building talking with voters and talking with campaign staff on his cell phone. Other Democratic campaigners handed out yellow sample ballots to voters waiting in line. Kerry-Edwards campaign signs flanked the doorway to the polling place. I am not an election law attorney, so I have no idea if this is permissible under PA law. But, I worked the polls in VA once and almost all of this would have been illegal under VA law. Frankly, I was ashamed at the nakedly partisan atmosphere at my polling place. Maybe this is how most people vote in this country?I voted this morning at a church in the heavily Democratic Cuyahoga County, but we voted in a church, and the boundaries for electioneering were clearly marked.
Posted at 10:41 AM
YOUTH VOTERS, FAKE VOTERS ETC, FROM O-HI-O [Jonah Goldberg]
From a reader:
Posted at 10:37 AM
FRONTLINE REPORTS [Jonah Goldberg]
I'm still going to post them from time to time, but I'm going to slow it down. The anecdotal stuff can be misleading and besides my email box is filling up with two kinds of email: "Hey my lines were short!" and "Hey, my lines were really, really long!" That's it. Also, reports from base states really aren't that exciting. So unless you've got a really important story to tell, please hold off. It's going to be a long day.
Posted at 10:32 AM
BELLY OF THE MICHIGAN BEAST [Jonah Goldberg]
From a reader:
Voted in Ann Arbor this morning. Polls opened at 7:00 and I was there at 6:55. NEVER seen a poll line that long and I always vote at 7:00. It took 45 minutes to get to the booth. It was the longest 45 minutes of my life: listening to the insufferable liberal Ann Arborites were chatting with each other. Comments like this by an excited mother: "I spoke to my son in Portland last night, and, guess what?, Oregon is now a blue state!" Please.
Posted at 10:28 AM
DIRTY POOL IN NH [Jonah Goldberg]
From a reader:
Jonah - I haven't voted yet, but will after work. (Republicans have jobs.) But I saw a few signs on my way to work today in NH near Portsmouth that show how desperate Kerry's people are. There were several signs along the road - they weren't out yesterday - that appeared to be Bush-Cheney signs. Same logo, colors ,etc. Beneath the names was a phrase - "A sales tax is a fair tax" and "Courage to ban stem cell research" . These are clearly phony signs meant to sway voters in NH. They had to go out last night, because had they gone out earlier, Bush supporters would have removed them. Pretty dirty pool by people who can't win votes on the merits of their positions.
Posted at 10:24 AM
A reader informs: "My son, who is in second grade, brought home an informational sheet on the two presidential candidates. It is published by 'Weekly Reader' and it lists John Kerry's favorite children's book as 'Robin Hood'. "
Posted at 10:19 AM
DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER PREDICTS BUSH VICTORY [Cliff May]
“We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime.”
The quote above is from Mark Mellman. Mark is a Democratic pollster. And he’s very partisan. And he’s been working for Kerry this year.
But Mark is no fool and he has a reputation to maintain.
He explains his reasoning at some length in a column in The Hill this morning. He predicts that Bush will get 51.6% of the two-party vote.
By contrast, Jay Cost is predicting Bush will get less than that: 48.63% to Kerry’s 46.24%.
Posted at 10:12 AM
SPEAKING OF O-HI-O [Jonah Goldberg]
Several readers have asked why I keep spelling it out that way: O-Hi-O. Two reasons really. First, I always remembered the Looney Tunes with Elmer Fudd and Bugs doing a vaudeville routine where Elmser asks "What's high in the middle and round on both ends?" The answer: "O-Hi-O" as he jabs and slaps at Bugs. Or something like that. He eventually sprays him with a seltzer bottle.
Also, in my head I always remember that Pretenders song where every syllable in O-Hi-O is pronounced.
I went back to Ohio But my city was gone There was no train station There was no downtown Southtown it had disappeared All my favorite places My city had been pulled down Reduced to parking spaces Ay! Oh! Where did you go, Ohio? I went back to Ohio But my family was gone I stood on the back porch There was nobody home I was stunned and amazed My childhood memories Saw this world past Like the wind thorugh the trees Ay! Oh! Where did you go, Ohio?
Posted at 10:06 AM
RE: PHILLY FRAUD [Cliff May]
Now on Drudge:
VOTES FOUND ON MACHINES IN PHILLY, BEFORE POLLS OPEN
Posted at 09:54 AM
LONG DAY IN O-HI-O [Jonah Goldberg]
From Dave in Columbus:
Here's the scoop from Columbus (Ohio.) If you remember yesterday I told you leaving the downtown was wild, Bush and Kerry singholders all over the place. However, the Bush people had the better locations to swing neighberhoods and suburbs while the Kerry people were posted by off ramps and streets heading to the more liberal "urbane' areas they will win anyway. As far as the voting this morning. My wife and I waited an hour to vote and we live in a strong W area. Other W area people reported the same. My secretary and some others in the office that live in strong Kerry areas also waited an hour or so to vote. Here's the deal. No one has ever waited to vote before. Either everyone is voting now or this will be the record turnout everyone predicted. That having been said, friends of mine both at GOP HQ and Dem HQ are ecstatic both laying out convincing arguments and statistics of why that works for them. I am still predicting a W victory, but it's going to be wild! Dave
Posted at 09:54 AM
VOTE FOR GEORGE BUSH [Robert P. George]
Dear ______ :
Posted at 09:53 AM
HUDAYBIYAH, SULLIVAN ETC [Jonah Goldberg]
There are a lot of non-election issues to be discussed. For examples, many readers want to know why I am "obsessed" with arguing with Andrew Sullivan. Others claim I completely bollixed the history of the treaty of Hudayibah in yesterday's G-File. Well, there's plenty of time for all that later.
Posted at 09:52 AM
ESCAPE! [Jack Fowler]
Kerry wins. Bush wins. Whoever wins, whoever loses, you’ll need a vacation next year to decompress from the madness of 2004. You’ll deserve a Mother of All Vacations vacation—like the National Review 2005 British Isles Cruise. Give yourself something to look forward to: 11 glorious days and nights (July 10-21) on Crystal Cruise’s super-luxurious Symphony, in the company of Bill Buckley, Robert Bork, Peggy Noonan, Larry Kudlow, Paul Johnson, David Pryce-Jones, Kate O’Beirne, Rich Lowry, Jay Nordlinger, and John O’Sullivan. Visiting London/Dover, Waterford, Dublin, Liverpool, Belfast, Edinburgh, and St. Peter Port in Guernsey. What a trip! Sign up today (after you vote for You Know Who) at www.nrcruise.com.
Posted at 09:48 AM
REPUBLICANS VOTE EARLY [Jonah Goldberg]
Isn't that the conventional wisdom?
Posted at 09:43 AM
SHUT UP [KJL]
"I was a disenfranchised voter," P Diddy on CNN this morning. Bill Hemmer, fortunately didn't let him get away with that stupidity. Hate Rock the Vote.
Posted at 09:43 AM
PA FRONTLINE [Jonah Goldberg]
From Pottstown PA:
Posted at 09:38 AM
RELAX. [Shannen W. Coffin]
My sister-in-law Chrissy has been a nervous wreck for the better part of the last month. I suspect I'll get at least three calls from her today asking whether Bush is going to win. But I also suspect that those of you checking the Corner 400 times today share her angst. So to Chrissy and the rest, relax. Go vote and tell your friends to vote. Ask your Dem friends to babysit your kids (until about 8 pm). We're gonna be fine. It'll be close, but Bush will win Ohio and Florida and after the 8 weeks of litigation, all will right again.
Posted at 09:37 AM
IN DEFENSE OF KERRY [Jonah Goldberg]
From a reader, who must feel so dirty...
Posted at 09:37 AM
Just IMed to me: " The Constitution should have a warning label: "If elections last more than 4 months - see a doctor."
Posted at 09:36 AM
AWESOME [Jonah Goldberg]
A reader informs me he wrote me in for DC Representative. I know it's pretty late for me to announce my candidacy, but if anyone wants to cast a protest vote my way, feel free. If called, I shall serve.
Posted at 09:36 AM
MARYLAND VOTING REPORT [Cliff May]
In my very leafy and very Democratic Maryland neighborhood, the lines were long.
One car had a bumper sticker reading: “Clinton lied about sex. Bush lies about everything else.” I gave that argument the consideration it merited, but in the end it was not sufficient to push me back into the “undecided” column.
A Time magazine reporter was right in front of me on line. I toyed with idea of suggesting that since our votes would cancel each other out we might as well leave. But a sense of civic duty unexpectedly came over me and I restrained myself.
As it turned out, those manning the polls (person-ing the polls?) did a remarkably good job of crowd control and it took no more than a half hour for me to get to the electronic voting booth. I noted in a loud voice to the Time reporter that I also had found it surprisingly quick and easy to cast ballots at the three other polling places I had visited this morning.
On C-Span, I heard a Kerry supporter say that she saw some men in uniform, rolled down her car window and yelled: “Ho, ho, hey, hey, how many kids did you kill today?” Struck me as rather retro but I’m sure it warmed the cockles of Michael Moore’s heart if he heard it (and if he has both a heart and cockles).
I’ll be reading the Horserace Blog today. (If Jay Cost’s predictions turn out to be right, how about we throw a party for him?)
I pledge to drink only branch water during the day, nothing stronger till the sun is over the yardarm. Or maybe a bit later than that. I’m scheduled to be on the BBC and Sky News tonight. My colleague here at FDD, Walid Phares, is scheduled to be on Al Jazeera. (Yes, Al Jazeera.)
Posted at 09:35 AM
ATHENS, OHIO VOTING... [Jonah Goldberg]
From an untenured prof who wishes to remain anonymous:
Posted at 09:31 AM
MILWAUKEE VOTING...MILDLY ENCOURAGING [Jonah Goldberg]
From a reader:
Posted at 09:29 AM
DRUDGE/PHILLY [Jonah Goldberg]
Drudge is reporting that the vote machines already had votes recorded on 'em when the polls opened in Philly. No follow-up story yet.
Posted at 09:17 AM
THIS IS ENCOURAGING.... [Jonah Goldberg]
Purely anecdotal, from a reader:
Posted at 09:15 AM
HEY... [Jonah Goldberg]
Kathryn - since nothing's going to be clear for hours why don't we all just take the day off and go to the movies? I'm sure the readers would understand.
Posted at 09:12 AM
HOME ALONE [Stanley Kurtz]
And now for the really big news of the day. The Arts section of today’s New York Times has a great story about Home Alone America, a new book you’re going to be hearing a lot about. Home Alone America is by Mary Eberstadt, and as the Times says, it “fires a new salvo in the Mommy Wars.” Check out the cover photo (pictured in the article), which clearly freaked out the reporter. I’ll have much more to say about Home Alone America after the election–as will plenty of other folks. For now, suffice it to say that Home Alone America is a superb and important book. The Times story is as positive as a story for this sort of book could ever be in The New York Times. That’s a real accomplishment for Eberstadt, but the truth is, the Times story doesn’t begin to do the book justice. I strongly suggest that you buy it.
Posted at 09:10 AM
KERRY'S LYING EYES [Jonah Goldberg]
I thought readers were joking when they said ol' nuance eyes put "hazel....sometimes blue" on his hunting license application. But they were serious. From the October 18, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service by Thomas Fitzgerald:
Later, Kerry stopped at the Village Grocery in Buchanan, Ohio, to drop $140 on a nonresident hunting license with a wetlands habit stamp so that he can hunt ducks on a return to Ohio later this week. He spelled his name, gave his Boston address and described his eyes as "hazel." Kerry paused, adding, "Blue, some days. Does it have 'blue, some days'?" he asked the clerk filling out his application on a computer.
Posted at 09:09 AM
ANOTHER MURDER IN HOLLAND [Rod Dreher]
The Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh has been murdered, and the suspect is a Muslim. He had received death threats after having made a film critical of radical Islam with Ayan Hirsaan Ali, a female Dutch politician who had renounced Islam and become a critic of it. A witness described a man wearing Islamic garb and a long beard having stood over the filmmaker and pumped shots into his body. Cops arrested a 26 year old Moroccan after a shootout. A Dutch friend writes this morning, "Now this country will swing massively to the Right to punish the government for not changing after Pim Fortuyn was murdered." Let this wake the nation up to the dangers from radical Islam within.
Posted at 09:07 AM
DOING MY BIT.... [Jonah Goldberg]
In New Hampshire. The Manchester Union Leader is running my syndicated column today. It appeared on NRO on Friday. It'd be cool if it changed some minds while people made their way to the booths this morning. But I have few illusions.
Posted at 09:05 AM
BUSH IN OHIO [KJL]
ABC is reporting that the president, who just voted in Texas, is heading to Ohio.
Posted at 09:05 AM
THE ELECTION [Jed Babbin]
The following is an e-mail I received from Wayne Simmons. Wayne, for those who don't know him, was a recruited out of the Navy in 1973 by the CIA and turned into a covert operator. Wayne ate, slept and drank with narco-terrorists and smugglers in the Caribbean, Europe, the Far East and Central Asia while gathering intel for the CIA and other "customers." He's one of those smart, tough guys who have been there and done that. His comments on the election are more than worthy of everyone's attention:
I have worked for six Presidents of the United States, numerous DCI's and DDO's, participated in countless ops and intel ops and have had more 9mm's pressed against my forehead than I can remember yet, I am more afraid and concerned today than when I sat at a table with narco terrorist's plotting to smuggle thousands of tons of heroin, cocaine, pot and weapons into the U.S. and slaughter anyone who tried to stop them. I remember the Church Commission. I remember being told how to run ops by members of congress who could not control crime in the states from which they had been elected. A Kerry aide recently said that if John Kerry is elected President of the United States, he will ask newly appointed and eminently qualified DCI Porter Goss to resign. We are at a time in the history of the U.S. when we face an enemy unlike any we have ever faced, a cult of resentment employing an asymmetric attack bent on the destruction of America and it's allies. An enemy determined to slaughter every man woman and child in the West and around the world. Forget for a moment that Kerry is the most liberal member of Congress, a Senator who will cut billions from our intel budgets and has worked his entire political career to decimate our military.
Posted at 09:01 AM
KEEP THE BARS OPEN [Jonah Goldberg]
From a reader:
Wonder if anyone can top this one...
Posted at 08:59 AM
BUCK UP [Jonah Goldberg]
If Bush wins every state he's even slightly ahead in -- according to the Realclearpolitics.com battleground state poll average -- he will win 300 electoral votes. That gives him a buffer of several states he could lose. For example he could lose Hawaii, Iowa and Wisconsin and still have 279. He could even lose Ohio and Wisconsin and get 270.
Posted at 08:57 AM
WISDOM FROM THE MASTER [Rick Brookhiser]
"There is no point in asking why Americans get caught up in the presidential election ritual even when the campaigns are obviously manipulative and the candidates are far from the best the country has to offer--just as it is pointless to inquire why ancient Romans accepted unquestioningly the divinations of soothsayers, or why tribal peoples believe in their totems, or why pentecostals have confidence in their healers. All rituals rest upon faith, not logic; all involve suspension of disbelief; and all seem as reasonable to the faithful as they seem absurd to unbelievers."
Forrest McDonald, The American Presidency
Posted at 08:56 AM
THINKING THE UNTHINKABLE... [Jonah Goldberg]
If Kerry wins, we should get everyone to start chanting "We're all Belgians now! We're all Belgians now!"
Posted at 08:47 AM
NOTE TO JEFF TAYLOR... [Jonah Goldberg]
The Amish do have cell phones.
Posted at 08:44 AM
E DAY [Michael Ledeen]
I will watch the news coverage today to see if my favorite election day urban legend reappears. As far back as I can remember, the morning stories all said "record turnout," and there were anecdotal accounts of long lines, huge crowds, etc. etc. But by evening, it was the usual percentage.
So far, it's holding to form.
Posted at 08:44 AM
IS KERRY FLIP-FLOPPING HIS EYE COLOR? [Jonah Goldberg]
Can we get some confirmation on this? From a reader:
Minor trivia, but indicative of how far he will go. On the front of a Toronto paper here today, is a close up of Jean Kerry, with striking BLUE EYES. I was sure he had brown eyes,and then saw 10 minutes ago on PBS Buffalo/Toronto an old Kerry TV interview being shown and his eyes were very brown. Twit.
Posted at 08:41 AM
FRONTLINE REPORT: OHIO [Jonah Goldberg]
I should note that by definition the people who show up at the polls in the rain are people who haven't been dissuaded by the rain. Anyway, from a reader:
Posted at 08:37 AM
IN LINE TO VOTE NOW [Rich Lowry]
I hear it could take an hour all told. And these aren't Bush voters here in downtown Manhattan!
Posted at 08:34 AM
THIS WOULD HAVE THE WRONG EFFECT ON PARENTS [KJL]
I am an art teacher in Tennesee. We just had our mock student election where Bush won by a landslide. The funny thing is that one of my students just rushed up to me upon hearing the results over the intercom and said, "John Kerry said he was going to make us go to school on Saturdays! Swear to god!"
Posted at 08:27 AM
CAN WE HAVE A SHOW OF HANDS? [Shannen W. Coffin]
Good point from a reader: "I'm in PA and concerned that if my state goes to Kerry, then bin Laden won't know that I voted for Bush. I wonder if he will at least take into account local returns or the popular vote to know that there are people in this state that will still want to see OBL become DOA."
ME: Perhaps all the embedded international observers can get the word back to him as to how you voted
Posted at 08:21 AM
LONG LINE, EASY VOTE [Tim Graham]
The wife and I went to vote at 6, and it took 10-15 minutes to get into the parking lot, 45 minutes overall. It seemed extra busy, but then, we didn't live in this county in 2000. And our DC-directed traffic is jammed up every day by 6:30. Even if turnout is heavy, Prince William County went for Bush last time by about 65-35.
It's always funny to vote with the Mrs., since she's afraid I'm going to go on some loud anti-Democrat bender and offend half the line. The real fear today was my weekly interview with WGST in Atlanta occurring in line, and then I would have to denounce Dan Rather in mixed company. Luckily, they rang just as I pulled the lever...
Posted at 08:18 AM
Thune will win today.
Posted at 08:15 AM
FROM A DEAR FRIEND IN NEW ALBANY, OHIO [KJL]
"The line was already out the door when I arrived at the polling place at 6:20 am. It took me an hour to get through the line. " Hopefully they were all voting for the same person she was!!
Posted at 08:05 AM
THE GOVERNORS [John Hood]
Believe it or not, some politicos find it possible to look down their ballots a bit and consider the potential outcomes in state and local electoral contests. With regards to governors, Republicans go into the 2004 cycle with 28 vs. 22 for the Democrats. There are 11 gubernatorial races up for grabs, though it looks to me like six of these are essentially decided: three for the Rs and three for the Ds. The five remain matchups are:
***Gov. Joe Kernan (D) vs. Mitch Daniels (R) in Indiana. Likely GOP takeover.
***Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Matt Blount (R) in Missouri. Leaning GOP takeover.
***John Lynch (D) v. Gov. Craig Benson (R) in New Hampshire. Leaning GOP retention, unless a big Kerry wave materializes.
***Brian Schweitzer (D) v. Bob Brown (R) in Montana. Likely Democratic takeover.
***Christine Gregoire (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R) in Washington. Leaning Democratic retention.
So if my math is correct, these results would increase the Republican margin by 1, to 29 governorships. But confident prediction is impossible this year, as if that wasn’t already obvious.
Posted at 08:03 AM
OHIO MARKETS [KJL]
A reader points out: "There's a lot of pro-Bush movement in Ohio on tradesports." And, of course, there is Zogby, who gives W a 6-point lead....(I know, I know...)
Posted at 07:52 AM
LUNTZ ON OHIO [Rich Lowry]
Was a Kerry-is-going-to-win-Ohio guy. Now has shifted to Bush (just said on Fox), based on Zogby's final poll in the state.
Posted at 07:50 AM
Hate you're staking so much on Ohio, man (though it's legit). That's going to be close, and this year's Florida--fraud central. Whoever wins, the courts will determine, I fear.
Posted at 07:47 AM
SOME GOOD REASONS TO VOTE FOR BUSH [Jonah Goldberg]
Posted at 07:38 AM
FLORIDA & OHIO, FLORIDA & OHIO, FLORIDA & OHIO [Rich Lowry]
I used to be a Bush-will-thread-the needle-guy, way back when--like yesterday. But I've soured on the upper Midwest. Maybe Bush can get Iowa, maybe. But it is much more likely winning scenario that he wins Florida and Ohio. That will pretty much do it, and he can forget about eking out Ohio replacement votes (with NH, IA and NM.) The Bush folks sound nervously confident about Ohio--a lot rides on it.
Posted at 07:36 AM
THE WHOLE WORLD IS WATCHING [Jonah Goldberg ]
I do wish Kerry had said something like this a few days earlier:
"This is the choice, this is the moment of accountability for America," Kerry said. "It's a moment where the world is watching what you're going to do. All of the hopes and dreams of our country are on the line."
I don't want to overstate it, but Kerry really is the world's candidate. According to Kerry, the world is watching to see if we'll hold ourselves accountable for what we did wrong under Bush.
Posted at 07:34 AM
I JUST VOTED [Michael Graham]
I was at the polls when the opened at 6am. Took me about 30 minutes to vote, 10 of which was due to the person in front of me practicing their “Hooked on Phonics” at the voting machine reading the various ballot initiatives and referenda. Two wonderful things happened. First, I was asked to produce both photo I.D. and proof of address (hooray!), and there were partisan poll watchers from both teams who checked my name against their lists.
To some people, this would be “voter intimidation.” To me, it’s good government.
And for those who believe that touch-screen voting machines magically solve all problems, one of the five at my polling place went down in the first 25 minutes of voting this morning. I think I heard someone muttering “Control, alt, delete.”
Posted at 07:30 AM
IF I MUST [Andrew Stuttaford]
Bush wins 281-257. As always, my instincts are pushing me in an altogether more gloomy direction, but as I'm the sort of pessimist who is always mildly surprised to emerge alive from aeroplane turbulence, takeaway food and chance encounters with the music of Barbra Streisand this can, perhaps, be disregarded.
Or can it?
Posted at 07:04 AM
NEAT E-MAIL [KJL]
I just realized that today is the anniversary of when I was first drawn to NRO. A long lost friend pointed this confused soul to look you up amidst the maelstrom of the 2000 election, and I’ve been hooked ever since. I wonder how many other readers started their addiction at the same time? Since then, I’ve read almost every word posted on NRO for the past 4 years, though it’s getting tougher the more ambitious you guys get. I watch every major political event with the TV on and my browser on NRO. Here’s to four more years! Which reminds me, as Jonah said, today, if you are just joining us around this time--election time--DON'T LEAVE. We have lots in planning for post-election, long and short term. Stick with us. You'll thank me later.
Posted at 06:57 AM
JUST VOTED [John J. Miller]
Lines were as long as I've ever seen them, and the poll workers were partaking in their usual inefficiencies--stand over here, now over here, no over there! But more or less a smooth operation, by Election Day standards. And not a single person tried to intimidate me or steal my lunch money. When I got home, to prepare for a day of nailbiting in the city, my 5-year-old daughter saw the "I Voted" sticker on my shirt. "Who won?" she asked.
Posted at 06:36 AM
FROM CLIFTON PARK NY--BUSH LEADS! [KJL]
One reader: "Bush Cheney lead 1-0 amongst voters I've surveyed. Early, but a good start!!" That's another way of saying: the polls are open...
Posted at 06:21 AM
THERESA LEPORE [KJL]
Election supervisor in Palm Beach, of course. I think her 15 minutes are over around 10 tonight.
Posted at 06:13 AM
BUSH WINS! [KJL]
Well, in Dixville Notch.
Posted at 06:03 AM
A REMINDER FOR POLL WATCHERS [Michael Graham]
From the Washington Times: "Although the Harris Poll was the lone organization to predict an exact tie in that election, a Zogby poll and one by Gallup/CNN/USA Today both came within two percentage points: Zogby had Al Gore winning, Gallup had George Bush winning, each by two points."
Today's Harris Poll: Bush +4
Today's Zogby Poll: Bush +1
The latest Gallup: Tie.
For what it's worth.
Posted at 06:00 AM
WHAT IS AT STAKE [KJL]
Read Rush. An excerpt:
In the America I thought I knew, John Kerry wouldn't be within 30 points, nor would anybody in the Democratic Party, using their campaign, their rhetoric, their mean-spirited bile. There's no candidate in their party using this campaign and using the allies they've used that would be within 30 points of George W. Bush. It may not be the America I know, so we have to fight for that, as well as our liberty at the same time -- and that's what it takes, folks. You have to fight, even for the people who are wrong. The people are too blind or too uninformed or too uneducated or too ignorant or too whatever to see the threat that faces them because they refuse to take a look at it. That's the job that we all have. That's what you do when you fight for your country: You fight for everybody in it.
Posted at 05:57 AM
ELECTION EVE MESSAGE FROM RNC-ER [KJL]
"I am feeling pretty good. Going to be election of a lifetime. We win"
Posted at 05:54 AM
THIS IS MILDLY AMUSING [KJL]
and then distressing. (Here.)
Posted at 05:47 AM
NEW YORK STATE [KJL]
I voted for Marilyn O'Grady for Senate (I voted last week). There's a non-mod Republican in NY--who might come in second. She's actually runningon the Conservative-party line, Howard Mills the mod Republican. Here's my interview with her.
Posted at 05:46 AM
BLEG [Robert Alt]
Business has taken me to Cincinnati for election day/night. Any recommendations from readers as to where the Republicans will be gathering to watch results and toast victory?
Posted at 05:38 AM
I KNEW [KJL]
if I turned off my computer last night something huge would happen like TOM DASCHLE WOULD SUE JOHN THUNE. And Jon Lauck liveblogged court proceedings. And guess what's all over the S.D. papers this morning? A moment of self-destruction for the senator?
Posted at 05:33 AM
CHRIS MATTHEWS'S [KJL]
son sang America the Beautiful on MSNBC last night? And here I thought he jumped the shark when he cried during Al Gore's (eventual) concession speech. My bad, I guess.
Posted at 05:30 AM
IN NYC [I have it on good authority Peter Hort is a good guy. He's running against JERRY NADLER. That's enough in...]
I have it on good authority Peter Hort is a good guy. He's running against JERRY NADLER. That's enough in my book. He's a mod Republican, of course, but who isn't in NYC?
Posted at 05:29 AM
CALLS FOR COBURN [KJL]
I'm told by Coburn folks that if you want pitch in and makr calls to get people out to vote for him in Oklahoma, you can (from wherever you are). Email firstname.lastname@example.org to get Oklahoma phone numbers and a script to make GOTV calls today.
Posted at 05:27 AM
WOULD IT BE [KJL]
too much if I wore a "Vote for Bush or Die" t-shirt today?
Posted at 05:11 AM
FINAL SENATE POLLS [John J. Miller]
Looking at the last-minute Senate polls, the following GOP candidates appear to have had a good weekend: Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Richard Burr of North Carolina, and Tom Coburn of Oklahoma. John Thune is keeping things interesting in South Dakota. Mel Martinez has not been able to pull away in Florida; he may be in for a late night. Pete Coors of Colorado enteres today as an underdog and probably more of one than he's comfortable being. Jim DeMint in South Carolina continues to look solid. Tim Michels of Wisconsin possibly has started to click with voters but definitely is out of time. Why hasn't there been more public polling in Kentucky? Probably because few people--even Democrats--really believe Jim Bunning will lose there. And in Illinois, the big question for Republicans is whether Alan Keyes will break 25 percent, or even 20 percent.
Posted at 04:53 AM
EARLY AM GOOD NEWS FROM HARRIS POLL [Wesley J. Smith]
In 2000 we found that eight percent (8%) of voters cast their vote early. Now we estimate that approximately 24 percent of all this year's votes have already been cast. These voters have given an early 50 to 44 percent lead to President Bush over Senator Kerry.
Posted at 02:03 AM