Bush’s McCain Problem — By the Numbers
Why the president is going easy on his chief rival — for now, at least.

March 30, 2001 3:45 p.m.

he good news for George W. Bush is that the number of Americans who give him a positive job performance rating is

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staying steady at 52 percent. The bad news — found in a new poll by John Zogby — is that 41 percent of those surveyed give Bush a negative rating. Even worse, Americans seem to like Bush's main rival, Sen. John McCain, better than they like the president.

The poll, of 1,000 likely voters nationwide, underscores the potential dangers for Bush in any political tangle with McCain. Zogby asked the following question: "In the event of a dispute between president George W. Bush and Senator John McCain, which man would you say is more likely to represent your views?" Forty-nine percent said they believe McCain is more likely to represent their views, while just 26 percent chose Bush (11 percent said neither one or they were not sure).

Broken down by party, 72 percent of Republicans chose Bush, while 21 percent chose McCain, and seven percent said neither/not sure. Among Democrats, the numbers were reversed, with 69 percent choosing McCain, 17 percent choosing Bush, and 14 percent saying neither/not sure. Among independents, 57 percent said McCain, to 31 percent for Bush, and 12 percent said neither/not sure.

The results cannot be terribly comforting for the president. Even in his own party, one out of five voters prefers McCain. And independents prefer the Arizona senator by a nearly two to one margin. "John McCain is the most popular political figure in the United States today, period," says Zogby. "His numbers are very high, and on an issue like campaign-finance reform, on which there is no genuine passion, voters are willing to side with McCain because he's McCain."

Then there are Bush's own numbers. The president's job-performance rating, 52 percent positive, "is not particularly good news, because after a couple of months in office, he really hasn't gained that much in political capital," says Zogby. "He was elected with 48 percent, and now he's a little over 50 percent."

Again, independents are a problem for Bush. It's not that they dislike him; it's that their opinion of him is so mixed. If one breaks down the job-performance ratings by party, 86 percent of Republicans rated Bush positively, opposed to 11 percent negative, and 3 percent not sure. Twenty-five percent of Democrats gave Bush a positive rating, against 65 percent negative, and 10 percent not sure. Among independents, 47 percent rated Bush favorably, opposed to 43 percent negative and 9 percent not sure.

One bit of good news for the White House is that Bush's personal favorability rating is 60 percent, although that's down from 67 percent a month ago. Put all the results together, and it's a mixed report card at best. "McCain lost the primaries and his political capital went up," says Zogby. "Bush won the election and his political capital stayed even."

Given those numbers, Bush's public kid-glove treatment of McCain seems to be the only option available to the president. Asked at his news conference Thursday about tensions between them, Bush said, "This is Washington, D.C. gossip, is how I view it. I respect John McCain. I like him a lot. That doesn't mean we're going to agree 100 percent of the time…. But I respect John. I realize — it's a game in Washington to try to create tension between John McCain and me. And I'm not going to let it happen."

With crucial votes on taxes, the budget, and other issues coming in the months ahead, Bush appears to believe that he simply cannot afford to anger McCain — and risk having the public take the Arizona senator's side. The new Zogby poll shows why.